Still tailwinds to potential HH
הערה:
2nd estimate GDP YOY at 2.5% which is 6th quarter of acceleration with final sales within US at 2.8% YOY and investment spending rebounding strongly with Trump election
הערה:
Period of consolidation so far
הערה:
So we are looking at various scenarios here: 1) Bullish case for a min low 2900s using the 2015 1H analog which was similar in terms of economic dynamics plus QE stopping 2) Bearish lower low which is part of Wave B of larger wave C. Currently 60:40 Bullish scenario
הערה:
Meant to say Wave B of larger Wave ABC
הערה:
So next week SPX should make a higher low vs 2530 in this bottoming process. Do not subscribe at all to the 1987 analogs floating around
הערה:
Looking for 2560 at worst for higher low next week
הערה:
Next week very important as speculative exposure continues to unwind while hedging continues to increase while SPX is rangebound/triangle. This is gradually positive
הערה:
Next important level is 2820/2860 the gap. Now, this could be a B Wave also, so tricky next 2 weeks
