S&P 500 - 2021 full analysis
Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy.
Please do not take this as face value. [see risk disclaimer]
Based on what merit?
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure. Where price had a low of 2182, this significant point to me, showed the imbalance between the previous Fibonacci extension points 1.786, 1.618. This was essentially fulfilling the swing high [all time high] and creating a swing low.
Refer back to 2007-08 on the chart to see the imbalances - where; the blue Ellipse - shows the 2008 rally distribution beginning to take effect.
The Red Ellipse - shows the pivotal 1.7186, 1.618 full retracement zones - where the "china trade war" and "coronavirus" fundamentals took place for the index to fall back in line. [revert back on the chart to see highlighted zone].
Here is our representation of the SPX500 - using a daily chart -
[we will upload this separately to track for 2021].
Rolling returns - historical data [1970-2020].
Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns,
the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return [despite the market sell off in Q1].
*Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est
Why the previous Extension zones [Monthly] fell in line with inefficiency 1 [light blue, weekly and monthly zone].
- we can see here that the price reversed directly between the previous extension zone to create a new inflow first touch to close out the imbalance between the buyers and sellers.
Shorts were closed and further longs were taken to bolster investments or if investing in a long term portfolio, a further contribution added upon the compounding value.
Four sectors returned a higher value than the S&P500 close in 2020 adding optimism within adding inflows into the market to 2021 - beyond.
With all other major indexes and rapid new industries taking off - what we will be able to see?
SPX500 & VIX
The below chart shows the important of 28-18 being the volatility range we will be expecting throughout the fiscal year.
maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur.
This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe.
The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year.
A Staggering amount of est 9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11.01.2021
27.775T USD
usdebtclock.org/index.html
The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit.
With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy.
What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment.
If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated.
Regardless we will continue producing analysis as and when.
Many thanks,
Team LVPA.
Risk disclaimer:
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information offered by Lupa Capital is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. LCP LTD will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy.
Please do not take this as face value. [see risk disclaimer]
Based on what merit?
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure. Where price had a low of 2182, this significant point to me, showed the imbalance between the previous Fibonacci extension points 1.786, 1.618. This was essentially fulfilling the swing high [all time high] and creating a swing low.
Refer back to 2007-08 on the chart to see the imbalances - where; the blue Ellipse - shows the 2008 rally distribution beginning to take effect.
The Red Ellipse - shows the pivotal 1.7186, 1.618 full retracement zones - where the "china trade war" and "coronavirus" fundamentals took place for the index to fall back in line. [revert back on the chart to see highlighted zone].
Here is our representation of the SPX500 - using a daily chart -
[we will upload this separately to track for 2021].
Rolling returns - historical data [1970-2020].
Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns,
the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return [despite the market sell off in Q1].
*Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est
Why the previous Extension zones [Monthly] fell in line with inefficiency 1 [light blue, weekly and monthly zone].
- we can see here that the price reversed directly between the previous extension zone to create a new inflow first touch to close out the imbalance between the buyers and sellers.
Shorts were closed and further longs were taken to bolster investments or if investing in a long term portfolio, a further contribution added upon the compounding value.
Four sectors returned a higher value than the S&P500 close in 2020 adding optimism within adding inflows into the market to 2021 - beyond.
With all other major indexes and rapid new industries taking off - what we will be able to see?
- outperforming in 2020:
- Tech,
consumer discretionary,
telecommunications
material sectors
SPX500 & VIX
The below chart shows the important of 28-18 being the volatility range we will be expecting throughout the fiscal year.
maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur.
This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe.
The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year.
A Staggering amount of est 9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11.01.2021
27.775T USD
usdebtclock.org/index.html
The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit.
With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy.
What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment.
If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated.
Regardless we will continue producing analysis as and when.
Many thanks,
Team LVPA.
Risk disclaimer:
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information offered by Lupa Capital is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. LCP LTD will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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