SPY: First week of DECEMBER

2 בדצמ׳ 2023

Oh god,
I posted a bunch of ideas titled "First week of November".
Yeah, I meant December haha. Sorry! But note if you see an idea "First week of November" its all of December, this includes:

Boeing Analysis
For BA

AMD Analysis
For AMD

TSLA Analysis
For TSLA

NVDA Analysis
For NVDA

Side Note:
I kind of neglected the futures traders last week, who I know comprise a fair amount of those who follow me. I apologize, I will also post ideas for ES1! and NQ1! into Sunday night :-).

I did trade futures a bit last week, but because I have been avoiding the indices, I am not as active on that side of things.

On to the analysis!

So Christmas theme time. However, it's just an attempt at lipstick on a pig, or in SPY's case, lipstick on a whale



Because it's just constantly being fed by greed and over-exuberance that has become devoid of really any meaningful rationality. Not to say that pigs and whales are this way, as I am an animal rights lover, but you know what I mean ;).

My true #1 Rule that has unwavered over time

If you have followed me over time, you will be familiar with my #1 rule that has been unwavering over time and was even helpful during the 2022 bear market. And what is that rule?

NEVER, and I mean NEVER! Short over Novembers or Decembers.

This is the one thing that has been true almost always since my beginnings in 2018, almost ALWAYS. Market sentiments change each year, and market behaviour changes each year, but this rule never falters. The slight exception was in 2022, the last week of December was a bit bearish, but likely owning to the FUD leading into 2023 and not before the market pumped from November until the end of December.

How much further up?

Judging by the high prob targets on SPX and ES1! 6 month range, it looks like we have another 1.5% ish to 3% ish move up:



And SPX:



Quick note on Seasonality



I know this may seem conflicting with my rule of never shorting into December, but traditionally we generally see pullback/selling into the beginning of December and then an equal push and santa rally into the end of December.

We can see it a bit better if we use my own Seasonality indicator and limit the lookback over the last 3 years (vs the one above is over the last 29 years):



We can see that it's actually net positive in December at an average daily gain of 0.03%. Meaning, that some selling happens but then the buying outpaces the selling.

Most seasonality charts, that you can look up just online, indicate traditional bullishness into December.



Targets

Immediate weekly targets are in the chart above.
We also have new monthly targets:



We essentially broke out of the bullish condition in after-hours on Friday and the ultimate TP being around 471.

New ATHs?

While it is possible QQQ makes a new ATH towards EOY:



An ATH for SPY is unlikely.

Will we get pullback?

I caved and I am long on SPY, but pullback into next week is possible, to re-test the bottom of the bear threshold on the month.

Based on momentum and greed, its kind of unlikely I would say, but its possible.

Pullback, imo, is likely to come towards the end of December (if we continue to rally throughout December) or into January.

I believe January will set the tone of what to expect for 2024 based on how we are finishing off this year.

🎯New year, new levels🎯

Don't forget, into January we will have TONS of reference points, such as the annual targets:



The 6 month targets:



And the 3 month targets:



Those are my thoughts!

Safe trades everyone!


NOTE:
I will likely not be updating this idea as much.
If you want to follow intra-day updates on my go-tos lately (NVDA, AMD, BA), you can tag along on those individual ideas. Will keep my thoughts more organized this week.

Take care!

4 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

Haha marketès a mess, bullish and bearish 99s everywhere.
Here are the real time levels for SPY if you are trading it this week:



I just went with BA today because its a little removed from all of this.

Good luck everyone, catch you in the other ideas :-).

6 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

HMmm, I feel I have been quiet enough so I will provide a bit of an update.

I have been working on the public RPPI release stuff, that's kind fo exciting! Countdown is on to that, but in terms of market updates:

If you haven't guessed by now, the market is indeed topping. The behaviour we are observing is very characteristic distribution top (whipsaw up and down, erratic, volatile price action, no progress up or down).

We have a fat list of accumulated unhit 99s in all directions. The weekly one on NQ to the upside and multiple ones to the downside on DIA, YM1!, ES1! and SPY. And these are on the monthly timeframe. The one on SPY which is the most pressing at this point is 450.
YM1!'s is particularly interesting:



(Btw that is the public release version, making it fancy :P)

And QQQ recently took its out but has just been chilling in the monthly threshold:


Whether we go up first and snag these high targets, or just bypass them into year end and tank is an answer I don't know.

But I do know is that this is 100% topping behaviour. And the validation is in the volume:

SPY


NQ


SPX



Safe trades everyone!

6 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

Oh one last thing,
I exited all of my longs and am cash.

My only current position is short on ADBE which I may swing, I may not.
Was targetting 589 on the week but everything is doing the dist top and the erratic whipsaw up and down makes it really difficult to swing.



We'll see what happens.

6 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

ADBE:


Swining.
Pray for a gap down to my TP 🙏

The other one that needs to be watched is oil:



Looking for it to hit PL2 on the monthly, as it did last month, to play a bounce on USO.

6 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

CL1! Daily perspective and

USO Daily:

6 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

Sorry correction USO 4 Hour:



The daily has also snagged a z buy signal. So yeah, lots going on in the oil department.

8 בדצמ׳ 2023

הערה

Going to close this post off early.

I literally did not look at the SPY chart once this week, and it was a great week haha. I had a bit of a rough week last week but this week was great! BA, some QQQ /NQ1!, Oil and NVDA were my go tos.

Going into next week, we have some big catalysts, FOMC being the major one of note. Expect a continuation of this range behavior into the catalyst.

Otherwise, no real suggestions except play the range.

For next week, I will post an idea on SPY again, and probably OIL
CL1!

But if there is anything in particular you want me to post an idea for, leave it in the comments below.

As I have been working on the public release version of the RPPI, I have now created models for pretty much every conceivable popular stock on the market, so yeah haha.

Good luck everyone and take care!