Currently, TCS is trading near the crucial resistance zone of ₹3200, which also carries high open interest. From a technical perspective, if the stock breaks and closes below the short-term support of ₹3150, we can look for a short entry on retest, with targets:
* 🎯 Target 1: ₹3080
* 🎯 Target 2: ₹3000
📰 Fundamental / News Catalyst
The recent US H-1B visa policy update imposing a $100,000 fee on new petitions triggered a knee-jerk reaction in IT stocks:
* U.S.-listed Indian IT firms saw an immediate 2-5% decline.
* Analysts expect the impact on TCS to be limited, since a large part of its U.S. workforce is locally hired and renewals/existing visas are exempt.
* Worst-case estimates suggest a 3-5% downside in the short term, but not a structural collapse for large, diversified players like TCS.
📊 Impact Outlook on TCS
Short Term (days–weeks):
* Investor sentiment may turn negative, causing selling pressure.
* Margin compression possible due to new visa costs.
* Analysts could revise earnings growth expectations lower.
* Offsetting factors: Renewals exempt, TCS has a solid U.S. local workforce, and offshore flexibility.
Medium Term (months):
* New contracts may factor in higher costs.
* Shift to offshore delivery could reduce higher-margin onsite revenues.
* More local U.S. hiring may raise costs.
* Offsetting factors: TCS’s scale allows cost absorption; some costs may be passed to clients.
Long Term (year+):
* Delivery model may shift further to offshore/local U.S. hiring.
* Competitive pressure if peers adapt faster in the U.S. market.
* Margins could be under pressure.
*Offsetting factors: Strong global brand, diversified business, investments in AI & automation can offset long-term risks.
🔎 Scenarios for Share Price
* Mild Reaction: 3-5% decline → cautious investors, limited disruption.
* Moderate Reaction: 8-12% decline → project delays, client pushback, stricter visa rules.
* Severe Reaction: 15-20%+ decline → contract losses, earnings downgrades, tighter U.S. policy.
✅ Conclusion
* 📌 Technicals: Watch ₹3150 for breakdown confirmation; short entries possible below this with ₹3080 / ₹3000 as downside targets.
* 📌 Fundamentals: News-driven weakness is likely, but structural risk to TCS remains limited vs smaller IT peers.
* 📌 Strategy: Short-term bearish setup aligns with both technical chart structure and negative sentiment from visa policy changes.
📌 Sentiment: Bearish (Short Term)
* 🎯 Target 1: ₹3080
* 🎯 Target 2: ₹3000
📰 Fundamental / News Catalyst
The recent US H-1B visa policy update imposing a $100,000 fee on new petitions triggered a knee-jerk reaction in IT stocks:
* U.S.-listed Indian IT firms saw an immediate 2-5% decline.
* Analysts expect the impact on TCS to be limited, since a large part of its U.S. workforce is locally hired and renewals/existing visas are exempt.
* Worst-case estimates suggest a 3-5% downside in the short term, but not a structural collapse for large, diversified players like TCS.
📊 Impact Outlook on TCS
Short Term (days–weeks):
* Investor sentiment may turn negative, causing selling pressure.
* Margin compression possible due to new visa costs.
* Analysts could revise earnings growth expectations lower.
* Offsetting factors: Renewals exempt, TCS has a solid U.S. local workforce, and offshore flexibility.
Medium Term (months):
* New contracts may factor in higher costs.
* Shift to offshore delivery could reduce higher-margin onsite revenues.
* More local U.S. hiring may raise costs.
* Offsetting factors: TCS’s scale allows cost absorption; some costs may be passed to clients.
Long Term (year+):
* Delivery model may shift further to offshore/local U.S. hiring.
* Competitive pressure if peers adapt faster in the U.S. market.
* Margins could be under pressure.
*Offsetting factors: Strong global brand, diversified business, investments in AI & automation can offset long-term risks.
🔎 Scenarios for Share Price
* Mild Reaction: 3-5% decline → cautious investors, limited disruption.
* Moderate Reaction: 8-12% decline → project delays, client pushback, stricter visa rules.
* Severe Reaction: 15-20%+ decline → contract losses, earnings downgrades, tighter U.S. policy.
✅ Conclusion
* 📌 Technicals: Watch ₹3150 for breakdown confirmation; short entries possible below this with ₹3080 / ₹3000 as downside targets.
* 📌 Fundamentals: News-driven weakness is likely, but structural risk to TCS remains limited vs smaller IT peers.
* 📌 Strategy: Short-term bearish setup aligns with both technical chart structure and negative sentiment from visa policy changes.
📌 Sentiment: Bearish (Short Term)
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.