Daily 4XSetUps - UKOIL Above $82.35 Confirms Med-Term Outbreak

2025/01/19
Daily 4XSetUps - UKOIL Above $82.35 Confirms Med-Term Outbreak
“false breakout of medium-term trend reversal pattern last week!
will it bullish succeed this week? Or will trump trump everything?”



Ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump as the next US President, the New York stock exchanges had a strong start to the weekend on Friday. and how? The mood is at its peak! America - how it lives and breathes. Either the US Republicans deliver to the satisfaction of the majority in the outside world, in foreign policy. And or also in domestic politics - which I hope! Because if not? The disappointment of the US Republicans is likely to be even greater than in the case of Biden & Harris. But let's leave that behind today - I also let myself be infected by the mood and formulated a few new 4XSetUps. Like this one. After the successful start to the reporting season, traders and investors are in a good mood and are also optimistic about the interest rate prospects. An unexpectedly strong rise in industrial production in December did not stand in the way of interest rate cut hopes on Friday. Although I don't buy that - I think it's wishful thinking on WallStreet's part, there shouldn't be anything standing in the way of a new upward price action explosion at the moment.

Trump back in office - I also supported him - now he can deliver in front of the whole world, in front of the eyes of the Americans. Maybe the yields have also dropped noticeably because you dare to trust Trump! Me too - but the question is, what do the majority of traders and investors think about the individual price actions? And buy or sell accordingly! The market-wide S&P 500 SP500 climbed back above the round mark of 6,000 points on Friday, the last trading day, and remained just below it at the end of the day with an increase of +1.00% to 5,996.66 points. The leading index Dow Jones Industrial DJIA rose by +0.78% to 43,487.83 points. Things looked even better for the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 NDX with an increase of +1.66% to 21,441.16 points. The weekly balance is impressive: The Dow DJIA gained +3.7%, the S&P 500 SP500 +2.9% and the Nasdaq 100 index NDX +2.8%. Among the individual stocks, the shares of the chip manufacturer Intel jumped by +9.3% and led the Nasdaq 100 index NDX with this price increase. Traders and/or investors once again spoke of vague takeover speculation. In addition to Intel, investors also bought heavily into other securities from the semiconductor industry: Nvidia NVDA gained +3.1%, which lifted it to first place in the Dow DJIA . On the Nasdaq IXIC , Marvell Technology MRVL and/or Broadcom AVGO also rose by +6.1% and/or +3.5% respectively.

“Beware of statements that begin with “I think that . . .” Just because someone thinks something doesn’t mean it’s true.”
Ray Dalio

Even though I may be unfairly perceived as a party crasher, I would still like to point out that the stock market as a whole in the USA is valued far too expensive! And the yield curve also predicts a recession! Of course, that doesn't have to happen - but it increases the likelihood that it will happen: US stock market crash & US recession! But I'm not assuming that today (yet). "As of September 30, 2024, the S&P500 is currently trading 71% above its modern-era historical trend value, (about 2.0 standard deviations), indicating that the market is Strongly Overvalued." This matters because it is a basic model based on an fitted exponential growth rate for the S&P 500. To continuously stay above the trend line suggests that the stock market must continue to grow at a continuously higher growth rate. Such explosive growth is not sustainable over long periods. "The US Treasury Yield Curve was recently inverted, meaning short term interest rates were higher than long term interest rates. This unusual occurrence, called a yield curve inversion, has historically been a very reliable indicator of an upcoming economic recession. Since World War II "Every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession in the following 6-18 months, and recessions are naturally correlated with decreased stock market returns." That's why take care with any long positions in the stock markets and/or operate only with stops - in your own interests.

$92.14 : 2024/04/12 - Annual High 2024
$87.92 : 2024/07/05 - 1st Highest High After AH 2024
$82.35 : 2024/08/12 - 2nd Highest High After AH 2024
$81.12 : 2024/10/07 - Bullish Intraday High +3.89%
$80.71 : 2025/01/17 - last price action
$80.43 : 2025/01/12 - This Weekend Opening
$79.95 : 2025/01/10 - Last Weekend Closing
$76.41 : 2024/10/08 - Bearish Low Of -4.51%
$76.08 : 2024/11/05 - November 2024 High
$74.85 : 2024/12/31 - December 2024 High
$70.89 : 2024/12/06 - December 2024 Low
$70.74 : 2024/11/18 - November 2024 Low
Be that as it may, back - from the trumps scenario - to everyday life, to the daily price action in UKOIL . Let's break down our long UKOIL 4XSetUp. And the price action is still more bullish as i thought originally. Even we got bearish last week. Bearish? No - it was a week with +1.37%, but it felt like a bearish week, at least for me, after we bulls didn't take over the $82.35 price action area. But at least traders and/or investors were able to defend the bullish GAP from the start of the week - the price action between $79.95 from 2025/01/10 (last weekend closing) and/or $80.43 from 2025/01/12 (this weekend opening). What we last experienced from mid-June 2024 to the beginning of July 2024 - then also 4 bullish weeks in a row - with a price action of $79.26 to $87.92. And/Or also from mid-March 2024 to the beginning of April 2024 - at that time again 4 bullish weeks in a row - with a price action of $81.11 to $92.14 (which was and is also the annual high of 2024). Why do I mention this? Because in the following weeks the bears always took over the territory - and in both cases of the four-week uptrend we always saw price action below the previous low of the first week of the four-week uptrend. In other words, the four-week bullish trend always turned into a larger bearish trend! This time too? That is the crucial question! What we will experience in the coming course. But I am confident - because this time we are trading above the long-term downtrend - in contrast to the two four-week bullish trends mentioned. Because the two highs of the four-week trends define the downward trend. That's why the chart is looking pretty bullish. We bulls need to defend the first last week opening at $80.43 from 2025/01/12 and/or last week before closing at $79.95 from 2025/01/10. And that is not only to defend the psychological technical important number around $80. No - to get faith back to take over $82.35! Why Because, if we left the second highest high 2024 after annual high 2024, the bulls are definitly took over the price action in UKOIL . Until that the terrain is bullish - but the mid-term trend reversal formation is not finished. At least even only above $82.35.

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$88.00 : 2025/06/30 - Target Price
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$80.71 : 2025/01/17 - last price action
$76.19 : 2025/01/06 - Entry Price
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$70.00 : 2025/06/30 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron



“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.