In spite of the massive euphoria following the election of Cyril Ramaphoosa as the new leader of ANC (and thus a replacement of the currently reigning corrupt Zuma), there is no foreseeable radical change in South Africa coming.
A 30% unemployment with failing infrastructure Ramaphoosa won't be able to deliver on the promises. That we can already witness by how cautiously he must operate not to upset the fragile deck of cards. In early March there is a highly probable downward credit rating revision from the last of the major three rating agencies classifying the sovereign debt of South Africa as junk. With this inevitable downgrade, South Africa will be excluded from the investment grade universe of the government debt market. Major holders will be forced to sell existing holdings and no new flows will come unless the risk is compensated with significantly higher interest rates. That implies upward pressure on USDZAR.
Additional rate hikes in the US will put an extra momentum on this pair that is going to reverse hard to test and break major historic highs.
A 30% unemployment with failing infrastructure Ramaphoosa won't be able to deliver on the promises. That we can already witness by how cautiously he must operate not to upset the fragile deck of cards. In early March there is a highly probable downward credit rating revision from the last of the major three rating agencies classifying the sovereign debt of South Africa as junk. With this inevitable downgrade, South Africa will be excluded from the investment grade universe of the government debt market. Major holders will be forced to sell existing holdings and no new flows will come unless the risk is compensated with significantly higher interest rates. That implies upward pressure on USDZAR.
Additional rate hikes in the US will put an extra momentum on this pair that is going to reverse hard to test and break major historic highs.
הערה:
ZAR -> USDZAR