Today, I'm going to present to you my thesis on why this rally is over and why the Bitcoin top is in for now, marking the weekly lower high that everyone will be setting as resistance in the coming months.
This rally has reminded me a lot of 2019 in many ways; it has played out the same, especially with Chainlink. I have been following a bar pattern fractal from 2019 that played out almost 1:1 for 358 days.
As you can see, LINK should have had a blowoff top by now, or has it? Something that I have learned a lot in this space is that blowoff tops are really anticlimactic. Prices go up, pull back, we all think it's just a small pullback, and then before you know it, it's a full-blown correction. When you look back, you realize, "Damn, that was the top."
The main chart you see above is one of many reasons why I think the top is highly likely. In 2019, we hit the 0.75 Fan Fib and topped out. So far, at this moment, it's finding resistance at this Fan Fib.
I have documented on my channel how the 2015 cycle macro structure is a lot like this cycle's structure, especially the cycle low. What happened in 2015 with Fib levels and Gann Fann.
Looking into it, we can see that Bitcoin topped out between the 0.5-0.618 Fib and around the 2/1 Gann Fann.
If you take a look at today's price action, you can see that we are in exactly the same spot as we were in 2015 before a big correction. A pre-halving 50% correction is always in the books.
A 55% correction to the 20k CME gap is in the books, no doubt, within the first 4 months of the year. This would be normal for a Bitcoin cycle.
You can clearly see that when the price comes to the bottom of the channel, we get a top in the market. It has predicted all the tops in the past few years. I cannot ignore this signal. Not only that, but the greed indicator fired off like the April top. It's undeniable that the channel is strong and unbreakable. Maybe this time it's different? Maybe this time it breaks down, and we go to an all-time high. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not taking the risk. I'm out.
This rally has reminded me a lot of 2019 in many ways; it has played out the same, especially with Chainlink. I have been following a bar pattern fractal from 2019 that played out almost 1:1 for 358 days.
The main chart you see above is one of many reasons why I think the top is highly likely. In 2019, we hit the 0.75 Fan Fib and topped out. So far, at this moment, it's finding resistance at this Fan Fib.
I have documented on my channel how the 2015 cycle macro structure is a lot like this cycle's structure, especially the cycle low. What happened in 2015 with Fib levels and Gann Fann.
