The Big Short - You saw the movie, Now see the real thing.
Here is an idea for ASX 200 - this is a monthly chart so I think this plays out in the next 12-18 months. There are many key technical and fundamental indicators screaming this house of cards is about to come crashing down. It will rebound and rebound hard, with lots of government intervention and bailouts, but the writing on the wall is red.
Some facts.
1. Home loans have now reached 0.5 mil per mortgage average amongst all households. This is 13x the wage -
2. Aussies are 198% in debt.
3. Wage growth is stagnant.
4. Employment rate is high, but a lot of it is part-time and contractual (non permanent).
5. Roughly 1.5 mil new immigrants every 10 years.
6. Research just came out showing immigration is the key factor in home sales along with foreign investments.
7. ARPA (independent body that checks home loans) refused to release data on "Liar Loans" since 2016.
8. Big 4 china investors in real-estate (commercial) are now pulling out of foreign investments.
9. The number of cranes in Melbourne in 5x those in new york or any other major metropolitan.
And here is the kicker. ASX is 25% just 4 banks, which are overexposed to home loans at the moment.
Do your research -- this party is about to come to an end.
Please ignore the bitcoin premiums on top (my layout is set and I mostly trade BTC).
Some facts.
1. Home loans have now reached 0.5 mil per mortgage average amongst all households. This is 13x the wage -
2. Aussies are 198% in debt.
3. Wage growth is stagnant.
4. Employment rate is high, but a lot of it is part-time and contractual (non permanent).
5. Roughly 1.5 mil new immigrants every 10 years.
6. Research just came out showing immigration is the key factor in home sales along with foreign investments.
7. ARPA (independent body that checks home loans) refused to release data on "Liar Loans" since 2016.
8. Big 4 china investors in real-estate (commercial) are now pulling out of foreign investments.
9. The number of cranes in Melbourne in 5x those in new york or any other major metropolitan.
And here is the kicker. ASX is 25% just 4 banks, which are overexposed to home loans at the moment.
Do your research -- this party is about to come to an end.
Please ignore the bitcoin premiums on top (my layout is set and I mostly trade BTC).
הערה:
Uh Oh .....
עסקה פעילה
עסקה פעילה:
Took some profits here.
עסקה פעילה:
Time to short again.
הערה:
Flirting with resistance
הערה:
Critical moment. If we break this (and it looks like we just may) time to cover shorts and reenter later.
הערה:
Ready? Do or die coming up.
הערה:
Popped above resistance ... quite surprised actually ... watching very closely as this could trigger a run to 6800
עסקה פעילה:
This is still a short call. However need to keep a very close eye
הערה:
Hello then ;) that didnt take as long as I imagined it would.
הערה:
Pray for the ASX. At support now. I expect a small rally. Fireworks Q1 2019.
הערה:
Fed hiked rates ... more blood bath incoming. Santa rally denied.
הערה:
Channel bottom close now. Lets see what happens. If this breaks it bad.
הערה:
Bounced off channel bottom.
הערה:
Moment of truth. Either this is a dead cat (which I think it may be) or a new rally starts here. There are no reasons right now for a rally thoug.