Soybean Futures (Jan 2024)ืืขืืืื ๐ฑ Soybeans - ๐ฅBrazil and Argentina ๐ต
Fundamental Data๐
๐ฑSoybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ 21.77%
Soybean Harvest Progress ๐โก๏ธ๐ฑ
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ 95%
Export Inspections ๐ขโก๏ธ๐
1,666,467 Metric Tons
โฌ๏ธ 516,368 Metric Tons week vs. last week
โฌ๏ธ 941,965 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
โฌ๏ธ 549,183 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales๐บ๏ธ๐ซฐ
28,159,427 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
โฌ๏ธ 4,933,183 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)๐
Bullish ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 52%
Neutral ๐ซ๐ซ๐ซโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 28%
Bearish ๐ฅ๐ฅโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 13%
Noteworthy News / Trends ๐
๐ข Brazilian Soybean crop continues to suffer through drought and heat stress conditions. Some of the crop is even being replanted as Cotton. (check our Twitter for more info)
๐ข Precipitation in Brazil is well below normal from a low of 13% of normal to a high of 70%, with most around the 30-40% range as far as November precipitation is concerned.
๐ข Funds have been adding to their net long position for five weeks in a row.
๐ข US Crush margins continue to show strength
๐ข The US had the largest weekly sales of Soybeans in +10 years
๐ข/๐ด Logistics at the ports of Brazil are mounting (congestion). For US Logistics the constraint appears to be the Panama Canal which has announced a reduction of the number of ships that will be able to transit through the canal daily from 24 currently to 18 in February 2024.
๐ข/๐ด Itโs too early to tell what happens with the Argentine elections, but one could assume that Milei winning would be bearish Soybeans as he vows to dollarize the economy. This would pave the way for Argentine farmers to sell their grain for Dollars instead of the hyperinflated Argentine Peso. (Basically the market will not encourage hoarding of grain off the market anymore)
๐ข/๐ด 5 Day forecast is calling for rains in Brazil in key areas that need the rain the most. Will they hit? Thatโs TBD.
Fund Net Position๐ฐ
Chicago Soybeans: +87,913 Contracts (Position as of 11/14)
Funds have been adding to their net position 5 weeks in a row
Commentary & Technicals๐น
All attention in the grain and oilseed markets continues to be pointing to two things in South America.
1. The ongoing heat and lack of rain in Brazil affecting Soybean production ๐ฅ
2.The presidential race in Argentina which could structurally shift everything in the Argentine economy IF Javier Milei wins ๐ต
These all come at a time when the US farmer will largely remain absent completing harvest as well as taking much needed time off during Thanksgiving.
We believe then based on the above that we may experience heightened volatility and lessening liquidity as we start pricing in which portion of the matrix becomes the most probabilistic outcome (Rain/Drought, Javier Wins/Loses).
Watch the following levels ๐
๐ข Upside Targets: 13.62, 13.87, 13.98
๐ด Downside Targets: 13.36, 13.14, 13.00
Investment Risk Disclaimerโ ๏ธ
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
๐ฑSoybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ 21.77%
Soybean Harvest Progress ๐โก๏ธ๐ฑ
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ 95%
Export Inspections ๐ขโก๏ธ๐
1,666,467 Metric Tons
โฌ๏ธ 516,368 Metric Tons week vs. last week
โฌ๏ธ 941,965 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
โฌ๏ธ 549,183 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales๐บ๏ธ๐ซฐ
28,159,427 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
โฌ๏ธ 4,933,183 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)๐
Bullish ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 52%
Neutral ๐ซ๐ซ๐ซโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 28%
Bearish ๐ฅ๐ฅโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 13%
Noteworthy News / Trends ๐
๐ข Brazilian Soybean crop continues to suffer through drought and heat stress conditions. Some of the crop is even being replanted as Cotton. (check our Twitter for more info)
๐ข Precipitation in Brazil is well below normal from a low of 13% of normal to a high of 70%, with most around the 30-40% range as far as November precipitation is concerned.
๐ข Funds have been adding to their net long position for five weeks in a row.
๐ข US Crush margins continue to show strength
๐ข The US had the largest weekly sales of Soybeans in +10 years
๐ข/๐ด Logistics at the ports of Brazil are mounting (congestion). For US Logistics the constraint appears to be the Panama Canal which has announced a reduction of the number of ships that will be able to transit through the canal daily from 24 currently to 18 in February 2024.
๐ข/๐ด Itโs too early to tell what happens with the Argentine elections, but one could assume that Milei winning would be bearish Soybeans as he vows to dollarize the economy. This would pave the way for Argentine farmers to sell their grain for Dollars instead of the hyperinflated Argentine Peso. (Basically the market will not encourage hoarding of grain off the market anymore)
๐ข/๐ด 5 Day forecast is calling for rains in Brazil in key areas that need the rain the most. Will they hit? Thatโs TBD.
Fund Net Position๐ฐ
Chicago Soybeans: +87,913 Contracts (Position as of 11/14)
Funds have been adding to their net position 5 weeks in a row
Commentary & Technicals๐น
All attention in the grain and oilseed markets continues to be pointing to two things in South America.
1. The ongoing heat and lack of rain in Brazil affecting Soybean production ๐ฅ
2.The presidential race in Argentina which could structurally shift everything in the Argentine economy IF Javier Milei wins ๐ต
These all come at a time when the US farmer will largely remain absent completing harvest as well as taking much needed time off during Thanksgiving.
We believe then based on the above that we may experience heightened volatility and lessening liquidity as we start pricing in which portion of the matrix becomes the most probabilistic outcome (Rain/Drought, Javier Wins/Loses).
Watch the following levels ๐
๐ข Upside Targets: 13.62, 13.87, 13.98
๐ด Downside Targets: 13.36, 13.14, 13.00
Investment Risk Disclaimerโ ๏ธ
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
ืืขืจื
Target 13.36 Met โ
ืืขืจื
Target 13.62 Met โ
ืืขืจื
Target 13.87 Met โ
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