๐ฑ Soybeans Going Into Holiday Mode (GrainStats)
Fundamental Data๐
Soybean Harvest Progress ๐โก๏ธ๐ฑ
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ 91%
Export Inspections ๐ขโก๏ธ๐
2,085,419 Metric Tons
โฌ๏ธ 35,012 Metric Tons week vs. last week
โฌ๏ธ 500,809 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Export Sales๐บ๏ธ
24,241,071 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
โฌ๏ธ 8,056,733 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ๐คฏ
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)๐
Bullish ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 46%
Neutral ๐ซ๐ซโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 19%
Bearish ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 29%
Noteworthy News / Trends ๐
๐ข *Huge* export sales this week purchased by China
๐ข US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff
๐ด CONAB raised Brazil's forecast for Soybean output to 162.42 million metric tons (even in light of the problems with the planting of the crop) [USDA is at 158 million metric tons]
๐ด USDA raised yield forecasts for US crop by 3/10 of a bushel and increased carryout by 25 million bushels
๐ด Panama Canal water level has caused congestion and increased shipping costs as ships "jump the line" to pass through the canal. (end result = increased shipping costs)
Funds๐ฐ
Funds have reversed their net short position and are long over 23 thousand contracts. (as of 10/31)
Soybean Technicals ๐น
Soybeans broke the down trend this week, but failed to follow through. Regardless, the price action actually has set a technical level to watch to the upside at @ 13.84, which if broken, could warrant a test of 14.20.
Other than that, we do have a trend forming to the upside, the only issue is for new entrants is that we're right in the middle of the range and there is plenty of choppiness to go around. That being said, we advise caution until a clearer picture is known for position taking.
What we're watching is continued buying potential from China for the next several weeks and any indication that Brazil's production estimates are to reverse. It is also notable to pay close attention to the elections in Argentina where the opposition party would "Dollarize" the economy, which in turn could lead to Argentine farmers being more relaxed with marketing decisions knowing they would revive dollars instead of the hyperinflated Argentine Peso.
Watch the following levels for now๐
๐ข Upside Targets: 13.73, 13.84, 14.00
๐ด Downside Targets: 13.36, 13.10, 12.97
Investment Risk Disclaimerโ ๏ธ
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
Soybean Harvest Progress ๐โก๏ธ๐ฑ
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ 91%
Export Inspections ๐ขโก๏ธ๐
2,085,419 Metric Tons
โฌ๏ธ 35,012 Metric Tons week vs. last week
โฌ๏ธ 500,809 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Export Sales๐บ๏ธ
24,241,071 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
โฌ๏ธ 8,056,733 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ๐คฏ
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)๐
Bullish ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 46%
Neutral ๐ซ๐ซโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 19%
Bearish ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ 29%
Noteworthy News / Trends ๐
๐ข *Huge* export sales this week purchased by China
๐ข US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff
๐ด CONAB raised Brazil's forecast for Soybean output to 162.42 million metric tons (even in light of the problems with the planting of the crop) [USDA is at 158 million metric tons]
๐ด USDA raised yield forecasts for US crop by 3/10 of a bushel and increased carryout by 25 million bushels
๐ด Panama Canal water level has caused congestion and increased shipping costs as ships "jump the line" to pass through the canal. (end result = increased shipping costs)
Funds๐ฐ
Funds have reversed their net short position and are long over 23 thousand contracts. (as of 10/31)
Soybean Technicals ๐น
Soybeans broke the down trend this week, but failed to follow through. Regardless, the price action actually has set a technical level to watch to the upside at @ 13.84, which if broken, could warrant a test of 14.20.
Other than that, we do have a trend forming to the upside, the only issue is for new entrants is that we're right in the middle of the range and there is plenty of choppiness to go around. That being said, we advise caution until a clearer picture is known for position taking.
What we're watching is continued buying potential from China for the next several weeks and any indication that Brazil's production estimates are to reverse. It is also notable to pay close attention to the elections in Argentina where the opposition party would "Dollarize" the economy, which in turn could lead to Argentine farmers being more relaxed with marketing decisions knowing they would revive dollars instead of the hyperinflated Argentine Peso.
Watch the following levels for now๐
๐ข Upside Targets: 13.73, 13.84, 14.00
๐ด Downside Targets: 13.36, 13.10, 12.97
Investment Risk Disclaimerโ ๏ธ
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
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