Fractal & Entropy Market Dynamics with Mexican Hat WaveletThis indicator combines fractal analysis, entropy, and wavelet theory to model market dynamics using a customized approach. It integrates advanced mathematical techniques to assess the complexity and structure of price action, while also incorporating volume and price volatility.
Key Concepts and Features:
Volume-Weighted Price:
The script calculates a volume-adjusted price using a moving average of volume to give more weight to periods with higher volume. This allows the indicator to account for the impact of trading volume on price movements, enhancing its sensitivity to significant price shifts.
Mexican Hat Wavelet Approximation:
The script employs the Mexican Hat Wavelet, a mathematical tool that approximates price movements based on the Laplacian of the price series. This helps capture localized oscillations in price, acting as a filter to highlight certain price dynamics over the specified length. This wavelet is commonly used to identify key inflection points and trends in financial data.
Fractal Dimension Calculation:
The fractal dimension is calculated to quantify the market's complexity. It measures how price moves between intervals, with higher values indicating chaotic or more volatile market behavior. This dimension captures the self-similarity in price movements across different time frames, a key feature of fractals.
Shannon Entropy Calculation:
Shannon Entropy is used to measure the randomness or uncertainty in the price action. It calculates the degree of unpredictability based on the price changes, providing insight into the market's informational efficiency. Higher entropy indicates more randomness, while lower entropy suggests more predictable trends.
Custom Normalization:
The script includes a custom normalization function that processes the composite score (derived from fractal dimension and entropy). This normalization helps scale the values into a consistent range, making it easier to interpret the output. The smoothing factor and RSI-based approach ensure that the normalized value reacts smoothly to the changes in market dynamics.
Composite Score:
The composite score is a weighted combination of the fractal dimension and entropy. This score aims to provide a holistic view of the market by combining the structural complexity (fractal) and randomness (entropy) into one unified metric.
Plotting and Visuals:
The indicator plots the normalized composite score on a scale where a baseline of 50 is provided for reference. The resulting plot helps traders visualize market dynamics, with the score fluctuating based on changes in the market's fractal dimension and entropy. A score above or below the baseline of 50 indicates potential market shifts.
Use Case:
The "Enhanced Fractal and Entropy Market Dynamics with Mexican Hat Wavelet" is useful for traders looking to identify market conditions where there is a balance between price structure and randomness. By integrating wavelets, fractals, and entropy, the indicator can provide insights into market complexity, helping traders recognize potential trend reversals, periods of consolidation, or increased volatility. This can be particularly effective for those employing swing trading or trend-following strategies
מחזורים
Bernoulli Price Dynamics with IntraBar Volume (Bidirectional)This indicator adapts the principles of Bernoulli’s equation from fluid dynamics to analyze price and volume dynamics in the market. By incorporating intrabar volume data and splitting price movements into upward and downward components, it provides a bidirectional view of the market's kinetic and potential energies. This approach helps assess market pressure in both upward and downward directions, offering insights into potential price movement with energy-based mechanics.
Key Features:
Intrabar Volume Integration: The indicator collects up and down volume data from a lower timeframe, such as seconds or minutes, to provide more granular insights.
Bidirectional Market Pressure: By separating upward and downward price movements, it calculates market pressure in both directions, which is akin to fluid pressure. The separation enables tracking of distinct upward and downward energy flows in the market.
Energy Calculation:
Kinetic Energy: This represents the "movement" aspect of the price, weighted by volume. It is calculated for both upward and downward movements based on price velocity squared.
Potential Energy: This represents the "position" aspect of the price, calculated as the product of volume and the current price level. It is also separated into upward and downward components.
Market Pressure: The difference between the total energy (sum of kinetic and potential energies) and the highest observed total energy over a defined period (N). This provides an insight into the current momentum of price movement in both directions.
Visualization:
Market Pressure Up/Down: Plots the calculated market pressure for upward (green) and downward (red) movements.
Kinetic and Potential Energies: Provides individual plots for kinetic and potential energy in both directions to analyze the behavior of price and volume in more detail.
This indicator can be used to track market momentum and potential reversals by understanding the energy and pressure dynamics in both upward and downward price movements.
Earnings Surprise Indicator (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift)What It Does:
- Displays a company's actual earnings vs. analysts' estimates over time
- Shows "earnings surprises" - when actual results beat or miss expectations
- Helps identify trends in a company's financial performance
How It Works:
- Green bars: Positive surprise (earnings beat estimates)
- Red bars: Negative surprise (earnings missed estimates)
- Yellow line: Analysts' earnings estimates
Correlation with Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD): PEAD is the tendency for a stock's price to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks or months after the announcement.
Why It Matters:
- Positive surprises often lead to upward price drift
- Negative surprises often lead to downward price drift
- This drift can create trading opportunities
How to Use It:
1. Spot Trends:
- Consistent beats may indicate strong company performance
- Consistent misses may signal underlying issues
2. Gauge Market Expectations:
- Large surprises may lead to significant price movements
3. Timing Decisions:
- Consider long positions after positive surprises
- Consider short positions or exits after negative surprises
4. Risk Management:
- Be cautious of reversal if the drift seems excessive
- Use in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis
Key Takeaways:
- Earnings surprises can be fundamental-leading indicators of future stock performance, especially when correlated with analyst projections
- PEAD suggests that markets often underreact to earnings news initially
- This indicator helps visualize the magnitude and direction of surprises
- It can be a valuable tool for timing entry and exit points in trades
Profitable Mondays & Losing FridaysHere's a Pine Script that marks profitable Mondays and losing Fridays for a given stock:
Explanation
Input Parameter: The script allows you to input the stock symbol, defaulting to SPX.
Daily Returns: It calculates the daily return based on the closing price.
Day Identification: It checks if the current day is Monday or Friday.
Conditions:
Profitable Mondays: Marks with a green background if Monday's return is positive.
Losing Fridays: Marks with a red background if Friday's return is negative.
Visualization: Uses bgcolor to highlight the respective days on the chart.
You can adjust the stockSymbol input to analyze different stocks.
RSI Ignoring Gaps Between DaysThe RSI Ignoring Gaps Between Days indicator is an advanced modification of the traditional Relative Strength Index (RSI) designed to exclude price gaps that occur between the last bar of one trading day and the first bar of the next. This ensures that the RSI calculations remain focused on the actual price action during the trading session, avoiding distortions caused by overnight price gaps.
Key Features:
Gap Ignoring Mechanism: The indicator detects when a new day begins and skips the price change between the last bar of the previous day and the first bar of the current day. This ensures that only the intra-day price changes are included in the RSI calculation.
Intra-day Price Movement: The RSI calculations are based on real price changes within each trading day, providing a clearer reflection of momentum without interference from overnight events.
Dynamic RSI Calculation: The traditional RSI formula is preserved, but gains and losses are recalculated based on price changes from bar to bar within the same day.
Overbought/Oversold Levels: The indicator retains standard RSI overbought (70) and oversold (30) levels, allowing traders to easily identify potential reversal zones.
Alerts for Crossovers: Built-in alert conditions trigger when the RSI crosses key levels (30 or 70), signaling potential buying or selling opportunities.
This indicator is particularly useful for traders looking to focus on intra-day price action and avoid the influence of gaps caused by overnight market activity. It is suitable for intraday trading strategies where consistency in price movement measurement is crucial.
AndreundCristianIndicator Overview:
The "Trade Signals with Volume" indicator is a custom script that generates buy and sell signals based on the crossover of two moving averages (a fast one and a slow one) and adds a volume filter to validate these signals. It plots these signals directly on the chart, using arrows or labels to indicate where buy and sell signals occur.
Key Features:
Moving Averages (MA):
The indicator uses two Simple Moving Averages (SMA): a fast SMA and a slow SMA.
A buy signal is triggered when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA, signaling potential bullish momentum.
A sell signal is triggered when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA, indicating potential bearish momentum.
Volume Filter:
To ensure that signals are more reliable, the indicator only triggers a buy or sell signal if the volume is above a certain threshold. This threshold can be adjusted by the user in the input settings.
For example, if the volume exceeds 100,000 (or any set value), and a crossover occurs, the signal is validated.
Visual Representation:
Buy signals are represented with green labels or arrows below the price bars.
Sell signals are represented with red labels or arrows above the price bars.
The MAs are also plotted on the chart for visual reference.
Input Parameters:
Fast Moving Average Length: The number of periods for the fast SMA (default is 9 periods).
Slow Moving Average Length: The number of periods for the slow SMA (default is 21 periods).
Volume Threshold: The minimum volume required to validate a buy or sell signal (default is 100,000).
NYSE, Euronext, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Hours IndicatorNYSE, Euronext, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Hours Indicator
This script is designed to enhance your trading experience by visually marking the opening and closing hours of major global stock exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Euronext, and Shanghai Stock Exchange. By adding vertical lines and background fills during trading sessions, it helps traders quickly identify these critical periods, potentially informing better trading decisions.
Features of This Indicator:
NYSE, Euronext, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Hours: Displays vertical lines at market open and close times for these three exchanges. You can easily switch between showing or hiding the different exchanges to customize the indicator for your needs.
Background Fill: Highlights the trading hours of these exchanges using faint background colors, making it easy to spot when markets are in session. This feature is crucial for timing trades around overlapping trading hours and volume peaks.
Customizable Visuals: Adjust the color, line style (solid, dotted, dashed), and line width to match your preferences, making the indicator both functional and visually aligned with your chart's aesthetics.
How to Use the Indicator:
Add the Indicator to Your Chart: Add the script to your chart from the TradingView script library. Once added, the indicator will automatically plot vertical lines at the opening and closing times of the NYSE, Euronext, and Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Customize Display Settings: Choose which exchanges to display by enabling or disabling the NYSE, Euronext, or Shanghai sessions in the indicator settings. This allows you to focus only on the exchanges that are relevant to your trading strategy.
Adjust Visual Properties: Customize the appearance of the vertical lines and background fill through the settings. Modify the color of each exchange, adjust the line style (solid, dotted, dashed), and control the line thickness to suit your chart preferences. The background fill can also be customized to clearly highlight active trading sessions.
Identify Key Market Hours: Use the vertical lines and background fills to identify the market open and close times. This is particularly useful for understanding how price action changes during specific trading hours or for finding high liquidity periods when multiple markets are open simultaneously.
Adapt Trading Strategies: By knowing when major stock exchanges are open, you can adapt your trading strategy to take advantage of potential price movements, increased volatility, or volume. This can help you avoid low-liquidity times and capitalize on more active trading periods.
This indicator is especially valuable for traders focusing on cross-market dynamics or those interested in understanding how different sessions influence market liquidity and price action. With this tool, you can gain insight into market conditions and adapt your trading strategies accordingly. The clean visual separation of session times helps you maintain context, whether you're trading Forex, stocks, or cryptocurrencies.
Disclaimer: This script is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Prometheus Fractal-Based TrendThe Fractal-Based Trend indicator is a tool that uses fractals to try and detect which direction an underlying will continue to go.
Calculation:
A bullish fractal occurs when the current bar's high is lower than the previous bar high, and the previous bar's high is higher than both the high from two bars ago and the high from three bars ago.
A bearish fractal happens when the current bar's low is higher than the previous bar's low, and the previous bar's low is lower than both the low from two bars ago and the low from three bars ago.
When a bullish or bearish fractal forms, the corresponding value stored is the previous bar high for a bearish fractal or the previous bar's low for a bullish fractal.
The trade scenarios are when these fractals occur, a green or red label being plotted on the chart for whatever direction it predicts.
Trade examples:
We see on this daily chart of AMEX:SPY that the fractals represent the potential for a directional trade that can last a few days. The more volatile a chart is the more of these fractals we can see.
We see on this 5 minute chart for NASDAQ:TSLA there is way more activity, there are more sporadic candles on a lower time frame, so we can see more anomalies in the price action.
We see this to be true for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD even on a daily time frame, since it is very volatile. There are a lot of these labels plotted.
This is the perspective we aim to provide. We encourage traders to not follow indicators blindly. No indicator is 100% accurate. This one can give you a different perspective of price strength with volatility. We encourage any comments about desired updates or criticism!
Market Phases [OmegaTools]The Market Phases indicator utilizes the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) to assess various asset classes, bonds, or stock sectors across different market phases. It offers users the ability to monitor and compare trends in multiple markets through a normalized DPO approach, providing insights into relative overbought or oversold conditions. The indicator supports three distinct modes: "Asset Classes," "Bonds," and "Stock Sectors," allowing flexibility in market analysis based on user preference.
Key Features:
Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) Calculation: The DPO is computed to remove longer-term trends and focus on shorter-term cyclical behavior. The indicator applies normalization using linear interpolation to smooth out the values for better comparison across different markets.
Three Analysis Modes:
Asset Classes: Compares the DPO for major asset classes, including stocks (S&P 500), bonds (US 10-Year), commodities (Gold), and the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Bonds: Analyzes the DPO across various bond categories such as investment-grade bonds (LQD), high-yield bonds (HYG), emerging market bonds (EMB), and corporate bonds.
Stock Sectors: Provides insight into key stock sectors, including Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU), Financials (XLF), and Healthcare (XLV).
Real-Time Plotting:
The indicator plots the DPO values of the selected assets, bonds, or sectors on the chart. It provides a visual representation of the market phases, helping to identify potential market reversals or trends. Each plot is color-coded for clarity:
Blue: Asset/Sector 1
Red: Asset/Sector 2
Green: Asset/Sector 3
Orange: Asset/Sector 4
Table Display:
A dynamic table is displayed on the chart, showing the DPO values for the selected mode's assets or sectors. This allows quick comparison and evaluation of market trends.
Inputs:
DPO Length: Defines the lookback period for DPO calculation, adjustable between 10 and 500.
Normalization Length: Sets the length for normalizing the DPO values, with options ranging from 100 to 2000.
Mode: Choose between "Asset Classes," "Bonds," or "Stock Sectors" for tailored market analysis.
This tool is perfect for traders seeking to identify cyclical market phases, compare different asset classes, or monitor sector rotation dynamics. Use it to align your trading strategies with broader market trends and uncover potential trading opportunities across multiple markets.
Hide Days"Hide Days" Pine Script Indicator
The "Hide Days" indicator is designed to make specific days of the week less visible by altering the candle colors, making them blend into the background. This can help traders focus on specific trading days by hiding unwanted candles from view.
Features:
Selectable Days: Users can choose which days of the week to hide (Sunday through Saturday).
Dark Mode Toggle: A built-in "Dark Mode" option provides an optimized display based on the user's TradingView theme, setting hidden candles to a nearly invisible color that matches the background.
Dark Mode ON: Candles are set to dark gray (#151924).
Dark Mode OFF: Candles are set to white (#ffffff).
Simple Inputs: The indicator provides checkboxes for each day, making customization quick and easy.
Enhanced Focus: Useful for traders who want to focus on specific trading sessions or eliminate less relevant days from their chart view.
Use Cases:
Hide weekend data on charts to focus on weekdays.
Remove non-trading days to analyze market movements more effectively.
Adjust the indicator to blend with either dark or light chart themes.
Ultimate Fibonacci Trading Tool [CHE]Ultimate Fibonacci Trading Tool – Your Key to More Precise Trading Decisions!
Description:
Discover the Ultimate Fibonacci Trading Tool , a powerful instrument designed to revolutionize your technical analysis. This tool is crafted to assist traders of all experience levels in better understanding market movements and making informed decisions. By utilizing a higher reference period from the past, it provides you with a clear advantage in identifying critical support and resistance levels.
🌟 Key Features in Detail:
1. Automatic Timeframe Selection:
- Auto Timeframe: The tool automatically detects the optimal higher reference period based on your current chart, providing more precise analysis without additional effort.
- Multiplier Mode: Define the higher timeframe using a multiplier. By default set to 5, this can be adjusted to suit your individual needs.
- Manual Selection: For maximum control, you can manually select the desired timeframe.
2. Customizable Fibonacci Levels:
- Enable/Disable Levels: Toggle specific Fibonacci levels (e.g., 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, etc.) on or off to personalize your analysis.
- User-Defined Values: Input custom numerical values for each level to support specialized Fibonacci calculations.
- Color Customization: Choose individual colors for each level to keep your charts clear and visually appealing.
3. Automatic Trend Detection:
- The tool automatically identifies whether the market is in a bullish or bearish trend and adjusts the Fibonacci calculations accordingly, ensuring you always have the most relevant information at hand.
4. Period Separators with Start and Stop Labels:
- Customizable Separator Lines: Visualize the beginning of new time periods with lines that you can customize in style, color, and width.
- Start/Stop Labels: Clear markers help you instantly recognize critical time points and potential trend changes.
5. Flexible Label Management:
- Display Styles: Decide how Fibonacci levels are presented—percentage, price level, or both—so you get the information most important to you.
- Size Adjustment: Modify the size of the labels to optimize readability on your chart.
- Positioning: Place labels where they make the most sense for your analysis.
6. Informative Time Period Display:
- Customizable Info Box: Keep track of the reference period used with a customizable information box displayed directly on your chart.
- Layout Options: Determine the size, position, background, and text colors for seamless integration into your chart environment.
🔧 Detailed Settings Options:
- Timeframe Selection:
- Timeframe Type: Choose between "Auto Timeframe," "Multiplier," or "Manual" to control how the reference period is calculated.
- Multiplier: Set the multiplier when using the "Multiplier" mode; this value determines how many units of the current timeframe are used as the reference.
- Manual Resolution: If "Manual" is selected, you can input the exact timeframe (e.g., "60," "1D," "1W").
- Fibonacci Level Settings:
- Enabling Individual Levels: Toggle each Fibonacci level on or off according to your preference.
- Adjusting Level Values: Enter custom numerical values for each level to perform specialized calculations.
- Color Selection: Choose a unique color for each level to ensure clear differentiation.
- Period Separator Settings:
- Separator Color: Define the color of the separator lines to make them distinctly visible.
- Separator Style: Choose between "Solid," "Dashed," or "Dotted" to adjust the style of the separator lines.
- Separator Width: Set the width of the separator lines to match your chart aesthetics.
- Label Management:
- Label Style: Select how labels are displayed:
- Default: Shows both percentage and price.
- None: No labels are displayed.
- Percentage: Shows only the Fibonacci level percentage.
- Price: Shows only the price at the Fibonacci level.
- Label Size: Adjust the size of the labels (tiny, small, normal, large, huge) for optimal readability.
- Time Period Display:
- Show Time Period: Enable or disable the information box displaying the reference period.
- Size: Choose the size of the information box (tiny, small, normal, large, huge, auto).
- Positioning: Set the vertical (top, middle, bottom) and horizontal (left, center, right) position of the box.
- Color Customization: Select the background and text color of the information box to integrate it into your chart design.
📈 Why Is the Higher Reference Period Important?
The Ultimate Fibonacci Trading Tool leverages a higher reference period from the past to calculate Fibonacci levels. This approach offers several advantages:
- Deeper Market Analysis: By considering longer timeframes, you can uncover major market movements and trends that might be hidden in shorter periods.
- More Accurate Support and Resistance Levels: Higher timeframes provide more robust Fibonacci levels that are observed by many market participants.
- Better Decision-Making Foundation: With a comprehensive view of the market, you can make more informed trading decisions and minimize potential risks.
🎯 How This Tool Enhances Your Trading Strategy:
- Increased Efficiency: Automate complex calculations and save valuable time.
- Personalized Analysis: Adapt the tool to your individual needs and strategies.
- Enhanced Precision: Utilize precise Fibonacci levels to better determine entry and exit points.
- Improved Market Insight: Gain deeper understanding of market trends and structures by using higher timeframes.
🚀 Get Started Now!
Don't miss the opportunity to revolutionize your chart analysis. Integrate the Ultimate Fibonacci Trading Tool into your trading routine and benefit from more precise analyses and improved trading decisions.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Best regards
Chervolino
Leonid's Bitcoin Full Cycle Simple SMA IndicatorThis is a straight-forward and customizable indicator to track Bitcoin cycles, specifically used for helping investors understand where to buy and sell. This is done by using a two year SMA period as the base calculation. With that calculation you create lower and upper bounds for bull market peaks and bear market bottoms.
The novel idea here is that you can customize the SMA "strength" for both the upper and lower bounds as alpha decays over time and price get's less volatile with adoption increasing. The multiples are customizable for both the upper and lower bounds along with a mid-line that will adjust based on the settings input.
Indicators don't always have to rely on crazy math or outlandish ideas to be useful, sometimes even the simplest of inputs can give investors (especially those that are new) a great base case for their strategy. Something being simple does not diminish the idea or strength behind the data.
How to use this indicator: This script must be used on INDEX:BTCUSD (Bitcoin All-Time History Index) with the y-axis being set to Logarithmic scale.
Details & how to interpret: The price is colored green when Bitcoin enters a "value zone" meaning it is heavily oversold and likely near a bottom for the bear market cycle. The price is colored red when Bitcoin enters an "overbought zone" meaning it is heavily overbought and is likely near a top for the bull market cycle.
Along with the upper and lower bound I have plotted a mid-line (in orange) to establish a neutral zone which helps depict what phase of the cycle we're in (under mid-line = bearish/accumulation phase, over mid-line = bullish/distribution phase).
The inputs for the upper and lower bound are customizable and will need to be adjusted over time as alpha decay will occur as time goes on. Currently the numbers are as follows:
0.2 for the lower bound
4.675 for the upper bound
Both inputs can be modified depending on your risk tolerance. Mathematically it is safe to assume these numbers will decrease as time goes on and volatility during cycle peaks & troughs is reduced.
I've also plotted an upper bound "heat zone" which is shaded in green, this area is great for signaling when you should be preparing to begin taking profits. It takes the upper bound and subtracts the lower bound to derive the band.
All the colors are customizable and this indicator is best used on a line chart but can be customized to use on a bar chart/candlestick as well.
Simple Moving Averages are a very basic indicator but are often extremely powerful because the majority of traders/investors are looking at such levels which creates a psychological/herd effect. Another good example is the law of round numbers.
Regardless this script can be adapted with EMAs or additional standard deviations if necessary. If you have any questions or concerns please don't hesitate to message me.
Z-Scored Pi Cycle Top & BottomThis indicator calculates the Z-score of the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom indicator to identify potential market cycle tops and bottoms. It uses the relationship between two EMAs (111 and 350) to assess the price action and applies a Z-score to determine how far the current value deviates from the mean, providing a normalized measure of overbought and oversold conditions.
Summary:
The Z-Scored Pi Cycle Top & Bottom indicator is designed to help traders identify significant market cycle extremes by applying a Z-score to the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom ratio (EMA 111/EMA 350). This normalized score ranges between -2.99 and 2.99, with values near the extremes suggesting potential market tops or bottoms. Green shading indicates a positive Z-score (potential top), while red shading indicates a negative Z-score (potential bottom).
Use this indicator to gauge where the market stands relative to historical tops and bottoms, allowing for more informed decision-making in both bull and bear markets. The indicator also displays the absolute value of the Z-score in the label, helping traders easily visualize how far the current market is from historical extremes.
**I did not come up with or create this indicator I have just z scored it and made it easier for myself to use.***
Financial Crisis Predictor - Doomsday ClockThe **Financial Crisis Predictor - Doomsday Clock** is a composite indicator that evaluates multiple market conditions to determine financial risk levels. It combines four key metrics: market volatility (via VIX), yield curve spread, stock market momentum, and credit risk (via high-yield spread). Each metric contributes to a weighted "risk score," scaled between 0 and 100, which helps gauge the probability of a financial crisis. Here's a breakdown of how it works:
### 1. **Market Volatility (VIX)**
- **How it's measured:**
- Uses the VIX index, which represents expected market volatility.
- Applies two exponential moving averages (EMAs) to smooth out the data—one fast and one slow.
- Triggers a signal if the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA and VIX exceeds a defined threshold (default is 30).
- **Weighting:**
- Contributes up to 35% of the total risk score when active.
### 2. **Yield Curve Spread**
- **How it's measured:**
- Takes the difference between the yields of 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds (inversion indicates recession risk).
- If the spread drops below a certain threshold (default is 0.2), it signals a potential recession.
- **Weighting:**
- Contributes up to 25% of the risk score.
### 3. **Stock Market Momentum**
- **How it's measured:**
- Analyzes the S&P 500 (SPY) using a 20-day EMA for price momentum.
- Checks for a cross under the 20-day EMA and if the 5-day rate of change (ROC) is less than -2.
- This combination signals bearish market momentum.
- **Weighting:**
- Contributes up to 20% of the risk score.
### 4. **Credit Risk (High Yield Spread)**
- **How it's measured:**
- Assesses high-yield corporate bond spreads using EMAs, similar to the VIX logic.
- A crossover of the fast EMA above the slow EMA combined with spreads exceeding a defined threshold (default is 5.0) indicates increased credit risk.
- **Weighting:**
- Contributes up to 20% of the total risk score.
### 5. **Risk Score Calculation**
- The final **risk score** ranges from 0 to 100 and is calculated using the weighted sum of the four indicators.
- The score is smoothed to minimize false signals and maintain stability.
### 6. **Risk Zones**
- **Extreme Risk:** If the risk score is ≥ 75, indicating a severe crisis warning.
- **High Risk:** If the risk score is between 15 and 75, signaling heightened risk.
- **Moderate Risk:** If the risk score is between 10 and 15, representing potential concerns.
- **Low Risk:** If the risk score is < 10, suggesting stable conditions.
### 7. **Visual & Alerts**
- The indicator plots the risk score on a chart with color-coded backgrounds to indicate risk levels: green (low), yellow (moderate), orange (high), and red (extreme).
- Alert conditions are set for each risk zone, notifying users when the risk level transitions into a higher zone.
This indicator aims to quickly detect potential financial crises by aggregating signals from key market factors, making it a versatile tool for traders, analysts, and risk managers.
Altcoins vs BTC Market Cap HeatmapAltcoins vs BTC Market Cap Heatmap
"Ground control to major Tom" 🌙 👨🚀 🚀
This indicator provides a visual heatmap for tracking the relationship between the market cap of altcoins (TOTAL3) and Bitcoin (BTC). The primary goal is to identify potential market cycle tops and bottoms by analyzing how the TOTAL3 market cap (all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) compares to Bitcoin’s market cap.
Key Features:
• Market Cap Ratio: Plots the ratio of TOTAL3 to BTC market caps to give a clear visual representation of altcoin strength versus Bitcoin.
• Heatmap: Colors the background red when altcoins are overheating (TOTAL3 market cap equals or exceeds BTC) and blue when altcoins are cooling (TOTAL3 market cap is half or less than BTC).
• Threshold Levels: Includes horizontal lines at 1 (Overheated), 0.75 (Median), and 0.5 (Cooling) for easy reference.
• Alerts: Set alert conditions for when the ratio crosses key levels (1.0, 0.75, and 0.5), enabling timely notifications for potential market shifts.
How It Works:
• Overheated (Ratio ≥ 1): Indicates that the altcoin market cap is on par or larger than Bitcoin's, which could signal a top in the cycle.
• Cooling (Ratio < 0.5): Suggests that the altcoin market cap is half or less than Bitcoin's, potentially signaling a market bottom or cooling phase.
• Median (Ratio ≈ 0.75): A midpoint that provides insight into the market's neutral zone.
Use this tool to monitor market extremes and adjust your strategy accordingly when the altcoin market enters overheated or cooling phases.
Master Bitcoin Halving Color CodingMaster Bitcoin Halving Color Coding is a customizable TradingView indicator that visualizes Bitcoin price trends relative to its halving events. It color-codes price data based on the number of days since the most recent halving:
Yellow: 0–546 days post-halving
Blue: 547–849 days
Green: 850–1179 days
White: 1180+ days
Abdozo - Highlight First DaysAbdozo - Highlight First Days Indicator
This Pine Script indicator helps traders easily identify key timeframes by highlighting the first trading day of the week and the first day of the month. It provides visual markers directly on your chart, helping you stay aware of potential market trends and turning points.
Features:
- Highlight First Day of the Week (Monday): Automatically marks Mondays to help you track weekly market cycles.
- Highlight First Day of the Month: Spot the start of each month with ease to analyze monthly performance and trends.
NY Open Time Indicator (London Time)The NY Open Time Indicator is designed for traders who want to mark the opening time of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on their charts, specifically for assets traded during the London session. This indicator plots a vertical line at 2:30 PM London time (UTC+1), representing the moment the NYSE opens for trading.
Features:
Time Zone Adjustment: Automatically adjusts to reflect the NY opening time based on London time, accounting for daylight saving changes.
Visual Cue: The vertical line serves as a clear visual marker, helping traders identify potential market movements and volatility around the NY open.
Customizable Appearance: The color and width of the vertical line can be adjusted in the script to fit individual preferences and chart styles.
Simplicity: Easy to implement and understand, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
Use Cases:
Day Trading: Use this indicator to pinpoint significant market entry and exit points around the NY open, which is often a time of increased activity and volatility.
Market Analysis: Combine this indicator with other technical analysis tools to assess potential price movements and trends as the market opens.
Installation: Add this indicator to your TradingView chart and customize it to suit your trading strategy. (Public Code)
TEMA Crosses_AIT with Manual TEMA CalculationTitle: TEMA Crosses_AIT Indicator
Description:
The TEMA Crosses_AIT Indicator is designed for traders looking to leverage the Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) to identify trend reversals and momentum shifts in the market. This indicator calculates both fast and slow TEMA lines and signals potential buy or sell opportunities based on crossovers between these two lines.
Key Features:
Fast TEMA (TEMAF):
Default period: 20 (adjustable)
Represents the short-term trend and reacts quickly to price changes.
Slow TEMA (TEMAS):
Default period: 200 (adjustable)
Represents the long-term trend, smoothing out price fluctuations to give a clearer view of the overall direction.
Signal Generation:
Long Signal: A long (buy) signal is generated when the fast TEMA crosses above the slow TEMA, indicating a potential upward trend.
Short Signal: A short (sell) signal is generated when the fast TEMA crosses below the slow TEMA, indicating a potential downward trend.
Color-coded Visualization:
The fast TEMA line is displayed in green when it is above the slow TEMA (bullish signal) and in red when below (bearish signal).
The slow TEMA line is displayed in white.
A yellow triangle appears below the price bar for long entries.
A fuchsia triangle appears above the price bar for short entries.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates the Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA) manually using exponential moving averages (EMA). The TEMA is calculated by subtracting the second EMA from three times the first EMA, then adding the third EMA. This provides a smoother trend line that reacts more quickly than a traditional EMA, making it ideal for spotting trend changes.
Customizable Inputs:
TEMAF Period: Adjust the period of the fast TEMA to fit your trading style.
TEMAS Period: Adjust the period of the slow TEMA to match the time frame you are analyzing.
Use Cases:
Trend Reversals: The crossovers between the fast and slow TEMA provide clear signals for potential trend reversals, which can be used to enter or exit trades.
Momentum Confirmation: The color-coded TEMA lines allow traders to easily identify whether the short-term momentum is aligned with the long-term trend, helping to confirm the strength of a move.
Recommendations:
This indicator works well with other momentum-based tools like RSI or MACD for confirming signals and identifying overbought or oversold conditions. It is suitable for use across different asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, forex, and commodities.
Disclaimer:
The TEMA Crosses_AIT indicator should not be used as a standalone trading strategy. It is recommended to combine this indicator with other forms of analysis and risk management techniques. Always backtest the indicator on historical data before applying it to live trades.
Volatility %This indicator compares the average range of candles over a long period with the average range of a short period (which can be defined according to whether the strategy is more long-term or short-term), thus allowing the measurement of the asset's volatility or the strength of the movement. It was also created to be used on the 1D time frame with Swing Trading.
This indicator does not aim to predict the direction or strength of the next movement, but seeks to indicate whether the asset's value is moving more or less than the average. Based on the principle of alternation, after a large movement, there will likely be a short movement, and after a short movement, there will likely be a long one. Therefore, phases with less movement can be a good time to position oneself, and if volatility starts to decrease and the target has not been reached, closing the position can be considered.
This indicator also comes with three bands of percentage volatility averages altered by a multiplier, allowing for a dynamic reading of how volatile the market is. These should be adapted according to the asset.
This indicator is not meant to be used alone but as an auxiliary indicator.
GDP Recession Indicator by USCG_Vet🌟 GDP Recession Indicator by USCG_Vet 🌟
📈 Overview
The GDP Recession Indicator is a comprehensive economic tool designed to help traders and investors anticipate potential recessions by analyzing key U.S. economic metrics. By consolidating multiple normalized economic indicators into a single, actionable signal, this indicator provides a clear and intuitive way to assess the health of the U.S. economy on a monthly basis.
🔑 Key Features
🔴 Red Line (GDP Discrepancy):
Represents the normalized value of GDP - (PCE + GCE + GPDI), capturing the core GDP components.
⚪ White Line (Signal Line):
A simple moving average of the consolidated indicator, serving as a dynamic threshold for recession signals.
🔵 Consolidated Indicator (Blue Line):
An optional line that aggregates multiple economic indicators for a holistic view.
✨ Customizable Visibility:
By default, only the Red and White lines are displayed, ensuring a clean and focused chart. Additional indicators can be enabled as needed.
🔍 How It Works
📊 Data Normalization:
Processes key economic metrics:
GDP
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Government Consumption Expenditures (GCE)
Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI)
US Private Debt Growth (USPDG)
US Government Debt Growth (USGDG)
US Balance of Trade (USBOT)
Personal Savings Rate (BEA)
Each metric is normalized using a z-score over a configurable period (default is 6 months), ensuring comparability and mitigating the impact of differing scales.
🔗 Consolidation:
Selected indicators are averaged to form a consolidated economic signal, providing a comprehensive view of economic trends.
📉 Signal Generation:
Recession Signal:
When the Red Line (GDP Discrepancy) crosses below the White Line (Signal Line), it indicates a potential downturn in the economy.
🛠️ How to Use the GDP Recession Indicator
➕ Adding the Indicator:
🔴 Red Line: Displays the normalized GDP Discrepancy (GDP - (PCE + GCE + GPDI)).
⚪ White Line: Shows the signal line derived from the consolidated indicator.
🔵 Blue Line and Other Indicators: Hidden by default for clarity. Enable them in the indicator settings if a more detailed analysis is desired.
🔍 Interpreting the Signals:
Recession Signal:
🔴 Red Line crosses below ⚪ White Line: Signals that the economy may be heading into a recession. Indicates that the GDP Discrepancy is declining relative to the broader economic signals captured by the indicator.
📑 Confirmation:
Look for confirmation from other technical indicators or economic data to validate the recession signal.
⚙️ Customization:
🕒 Normalization Period: Adjust the normalization period to suit different timeframes or sensitivity levels.
🔄 Indicator Visibility: Toggle the visibility of additional economic metrics (e.g., US Private Debt Growth, US Government Debt Growth) to tailor the indicator to your analytical needs.
🔵 Consolidated Indicator: Enable the blue line if you wish to view the aggregated economic signal alongside the primary signals.
🎯 Benefits
⏰ Early Warning System:
Provides timely signals that can help anticipate economic downturns, allowing for proactive portfolio adjustments.
🏁 Conclusion
The GDP Recession Indicator is a powerful tool for anyone looking to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape. By providing clear signals based on robust economic data, it empowers traders and investors to make informed decisions and better manage risk in anticipation of potential recessions.
Advanced Economic Indicator by USCG_VetAdvanced Economic Indicator by USCG_Vet
tldr:
This comprehensive TradingView indicator combines multiple economic and financial metrics into a single, customizable composite index. By integrating key indicators such as the yield spread, commodity ratios, stock indices, and the Federal Reserve's QE/QT activities, it provides a holistic view of the economic landscape. Users can adjust the components and their weights to tailor the indicator to their analysis, aiding in forecasting economic conditions and market trends.
Detailed Description
Overview
The Advanced Economic Indicator is designed to provide traders and investors with a powerful tool to assess the overall economic environment. By aggregating a diverse set of economic indicators and financial market data into a single composite index, it helps identify potential turning points in the economy and financial markets.
Key Features:
Comprehensive Coverage: Includes 14 critical economic and financial indicators.
Customizable Components: Users can select which indicators to include.
Adjustable Weights: Assign weights to each component based on perceived significance.
Visual Signals: Clear plotting with threshold lines and background highlights.
Alerts: Set up alerts for when the composite index crosses user-defined thresholds.
Included Indicators
Yield Spread (10-Year Treasury Yield minus 3-Month Treasury Yield)
Copper/Gold Ratio
High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Stock Market Performance (S&P 500 Index - SPX)
Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Volatility Index (VIX)
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Housing Market Index (XHB)
Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
How to Use the Indicator
Configuring the Indicator:
Open Settings: Click on the gear icon (⚙️) next to the indicator's name.
Inputs Tab: You'll find a list of all components with checkboxes and weight inputs.
Including/Excluding Components
Checkboxes: Check or uncheck the box next to each component to include or exclude it from the composite index.
Default State: By default, all components are included.
Adjusting Component Weights:
Weight Inputs: Next to each component's checkbox is a weight input field.
Default Weights: Pre-assigned based on economic significance but fully adjustable.
Custom Weights: Enter your desired weight for each component to reflect your analysis.
Threshold Settings:
Bearish Threshold: Default is -1.0. Adjust to set the level below which the indicator signals potential economic downturns.
Bullish Threshold: Default is 1.0. Adjust to set the level above which the indicator signals potential economic upswings.
Setting the Timeframe:
Weekly Timeframe Recommended: Due to the inclusion of the Fed's balance sheet data (updated weekly), it's best to use this indicator on a weekly chart.
Changing Timeframe: Select 1W (weekly) from the timeframe options at the top of the chart.
Interpreting the Indicator:
Composite Index Line
Plot: The blue line represents the composite economic indicator.
Movement: Observe how the line moves relative to the threshold lines.
Threshold Lines
Zero Line (Gray Dotted): Indicates the neutral point.
Bearish Threshold (Red Dashed): Crossing below suggests potential economic weakness.
Bullish Threshold (Green Dashed): Crossing above suggests potential economic strength.
Background Highlights
Red Background: When the composite index is below the bearish threshold.
Green Background: When the composite index is above the bullish threshold.
No Color: When the composite index is between the thresholds.
Understanding the Components
1. Yield Spread
Description: The difference between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields.
Economic Significance: An inverted yield curve (negative spread) has historically preceded recessions.
2. Copper/Gold Ratio
Description: The price ratio of copper to gold.
Economic Significance: Copper is tied to industrial demand; gold is a safe-haven asset. The ratio indicates risk sentiment.
3. High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Description: Ratio of high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) to intermediate-term Treasury bonds (IEF).
Economic Significance: Reflects investor appetite for risk; widening spreads can signal credit stress.
4. Stock Market Performance (SPX)
Description: S&P 500 Index levels.
Economic Significance: Broad measure of U.S. equity market performance.
5. Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Description: Bitcoin Liquid Index price.
Economic Significance: Represents risk appetite in speculative assets.
6. Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Description: Front-month crude oil futures price.
Economic Significance: Influences inflation and consumer spending.
7. Volatility Index (VIX)
Description: Market's expectation of volatility (fear gauge).
Economic Significance: High VIX indicates market uncertainty; inverted in the indicator to align directionally.
8. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Description: Value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Economic Significance: Affects international trade and commodity prices; inverted in the indicator.
9. Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Description: iShares TIPS Bond ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Reflects market expectations of inflation.
10. Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Description: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for consumer confidence and spending.
11. Housing Market Index (XHB)
Description: SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Indicator of the housing market's health.
12. Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Description: Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for manufacturing activity.
13. Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Description: Inverse of the SPY ETF price.
Economic Significance: Represents unemployment trends; higher inverse SPY suggests higher unemployment.
14. Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
Description: Total assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Economic Significance: Indicates liquidity injections (QE) or withdrawals (QT); impacts interest rates and asset prices.
Customization and Advanced Usage
Adjusting Weights:
Purpose: Emphasize components you believe are more predictive or relevant.
Method: Increase or decrease the weight value next to each component.
Example: If you think the yield spread is particularly important, you might assign it a higher weight.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading and investing involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Prometheus Fractal WaveThe Fractal Wave is an indicator that uses a fractal analysis to determine where reversals may happen. This is done through a Fractal process, making sure a price point is in a certain set and then getting a Distance metric.
Calculation:
A bullish Fractal is defined by the current bar’s high being less than the last bar’s high, and the last bar’s high being greater than the second to last bar’s high, and the last bar’s high being greater than the third to last bar’s high.
A bearish Fractal is defined by the current low being greater than the last bar’s low, and the last bar’s low being less than the second to last bar’s low, and the last bar’s low being less than the third to last bar’s low.
When there is that bullish or bearish fractal the value we store is either the last bar’s high or low respective to bullish or bearish fractal.
Once we have that value stored we either subtract the last bar’s low from the bullish Fractal value, and subtract the last bar’s high from the bearish Fractal value. Those are our Distances.
Code:
isBullishFractal() =>
high > high and high < high and high > high
isBearishFractal() =>
low < low and low > low and low < low
var float lastBullishFractal = na
var float lastBearishFractal = na
if isBullishFractal() and barstate.isconfirmed
lastBullishFractal := high
if isBearishFractal() and barstate.isconfirmed
lastBearishFractal := low
//------------------------------
//-------CACLULATION------------
//------------------------------
bullWaveDistance = na(lastBullishFractal) ? na : lastBullishFractal - low
bearWaveDistance = na(lastBearishFractal) ? na : high - lastBearishFractal
We then plot the bullish distance and the negative bearish distance.
The trade scenarios come from when one breaks the zero line and then goes back above or below. So if the last bullish distance was below 0 and is now above, or if the last negative bearish distance was above 0 and now below. We plot a green label below a candle for a bullish scenario, or a red label above a candle for a bearish one, you can turn them on or off.
Code:
plot(bullWaveDistance, color=color.green, title="Bull Wave Distance", linewidth=2)
plot(-bearWaveDistance, color=color.red, title="Bear Wave Distance", linewidth=2)
plot(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray, display = display.pane)
bearish_reversal = plot_labels ? bullWaveDistance < 0 and bullWaveDistance > 0 : na
bullish_reversal = plot_labels ? -bearWaveDistance > 0 and -bearWaveDistance < 0 : na
plotshape(bullish_reversal, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, title="Bullish Fractal", text="↑", display = display.all - display.status_line, force_overlay = true)
plotshape(bearish_reversal, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, title="Bearish Fractal", text="↓", display = display.all - display.status_line, force_overlay = true)
We can see in this daily NASDAQ:QQQ chart that the indicator gives us marks that can either be used as Reversal signals or as breathers in the trend.
Since it is designed to provide reversals, on something like Gold where the uptrend has been strong, the signals may be just short breathers, not full blown strong reversal signs.
The indicator works just as well intra day as it does on larger timeframes.
We encourage traders to not follow indicators blindly, none are 100% accurate. Please comment on any desired updates, all criticism is welcome!
