Zig Zag/Consecutive Bars [UkutaLabs]█ OVERVIEW
The Zig Zag/Consecutive Bars indicator is a powerful trading tool that helps to visualise the flow of the market. This indicator allows users to see at a glance when a candle closes at a new high or a new low, which can be incorporated into a variety of trading strategies to better understand points of reversal and consolidation.
This indicator also displays the RSI score of each pivot, as well as a trailing count of how many bars it has been since there was a new high/low.
█ USAGE
As each bar finishes, the script will check if it closed above or below the previous bar’s high or low, depending on the current trend direction. When a new high or low is set, the script will then look for a move in the other direction. This can be a powerful tool that can identify when the market is trending strongly, as well as identifying when the market has a weak or no trend.
At each pivot point, the RSI score is displayed. This serves as additional confirmation to how strong the trend is. The RSI labels can be turned off in the settings.
As each trend develops, the script will count and display the number of bars that have closed since the most recent pivot. These labels can be turned off in the settings.
█ SETTINGS
Configuration
• Show RSI Scores: Determines whether or not labels displaying RSI scores are drawn.
• Show Counter: Determines whether or not labels displaying the number of bars since the most recent pivot are drawn.
• Line Color: Determines the color of the Zig Zag line.
מתנדים
Bitcoin Power Law Global Liqudity Model by G. SantostasiIn recent studies, we've observed a notable correlation between Bitcoin's price and global liquidity metrics. This relationship reveals significant insights into Bitcoin's price movements and offers a new perspective on using macroeconomic indicators to understand and predict Bitcoin's market trends.
Our analysis shows that Bitcoin's price exhibits periodic bubbles, which seem closely associated with oscillations in global liquidity. Notably, the overall price path of Bitcoin appears to be a complex function of global liquidity. This relationship is not as simple as the Bitcoin Power Law in time that can be described with a simple equation, Price ∼ time⁶.
Instead, we have developed a polynomial model to describe this complex relationship between liquidity and Bitcoin price. With a 4-degree polynomial (with 5 different parameters needed to fit the data), we can get a decent fit to the data.
The fit is obtained using 500 data points by polynomial regression. The vector coefficients of the polynomial are obtained such that the sum of squared error between the observations and theoretical polynomial model is minimized.
This model needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the warning by famous mathematician Von Neumann: "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." discussing a model created by Italian Physicist Fermi. By this he meant that the Fermi simulations relied on too many input parameters, presupposing an overfitting phenomenon.
We can still gain some insights into the relationship between Global Liquidity and the price evolution of Bitcoin using this complex model.
When the price of Bitcoin is plotted against our global liquidity index, we observe a polynomial relationship. This model allows us to see when Bitcoin's price deviates significantly from the predicted value based on global liquidity:
Above the Model: When Bitcoin's price is above the polynomial fit, it indicates a potential lack of sufficient liquidity to support the current price level, suggesting a likely correction.
Below the Model: Conversely, when the price is below the fit, it implies that liquidity might be higher than what is reflected in the price, indicating potential upward movement.
Our global liquidity index comprises several key macroeconomic metrics from major financial institutions worldwide. Here are some of the major components:
RRP (Reverse Repurchase Agreements): This metric indicates the level of liquidity in the financial system through temporary sales of securities with an agreement to repurchase them.
FED (Federal Reserve System): Represents the balance sheet of the US central bank, reflecting its monetary policy actions.
TGA (Treasury General Account): Reflects the US Treasury’s cash balance, impacting the liquidity in the banking system.
PBC (People's Bank of China): Shows the monetary policy actions and liquidity management by China’s central bank.
ECB (European Central Bank): Represents the balance sheet and liquidity management actions of the Eurozone's central bank.
BOJ (Bank of Japan): Reflects Japan's central bank's monetary policy and liquidity measures.
Other Central Banks: Includes metrics from various other central banks like the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, etc.
M2 Money Supply: This includes money supply metrics from various countries like the USA, Europe, China, Japan, and other significant economies.
These components collectively provide a comprehensive view of global liquidity, which is crucial for understanding its impact on Bitcoin's price.
Using the polynomial model and the author's Bitcoin power law model we can create 2 oscillators, one that shows deviations from the trend (normalized to the price to make the peaks more uniform) and the other showing deviations of the polynomial liquidity model from the power law trend.
The oscillators show the difference between the price and the power law model relative to the price, Orange Line. The Blue Line is instead the difference between the Global Liquidity Model of the price and the power law model relative to the model itself. The two oscillators can be overlayed to show their differences and similarities.
Analysis: In addition to similar observations from the discussion above we can see that most Bitcoin bottoms are not directly associated with bottoms in the liquidity model indicating a different mechanism at play that determines Bitcoin bottoms (probably due to miners' capitulation).
Using the new force_overlay function we plot the polynomial liquidity model directly over the Bitcoin price chart while we display the 2 oscillators in a separate panel.
Fisher Transform on RSIOverview
The Fisher Transform on RSI indicator combines the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with the Fisher Transform to offer a refined tool for identifying market turning points and trends. By applying the Fisher Transform to the RSI, this indicator converts RSI values into a Gaussian normal distribution, enhancing the precision of detecting overbought and oversold conditions. This method provides a clearer and more accurate identification of potential market reversals than the standard RSI.
Key/Unique Features
Fisher Transform Applied to RSI : Transforms RSI values into a Gaussian normal distribution, improving the detection of overbought and oversold conditions.
Smoothing : Applies additional smoothing to the Fisher Transform, reducing noise and providing clearer signals.
Signal Line : Includes a signal line to identify crossover points, indicating potential buy or sell signals.
Custom Alerts : Built-in alert conditions for bullish and bearish crossovers, keeping traders informed of significant market movements.
Visual Enhancements : Background color changes based on crossover conditions, offering immediate visual cues for potential trading opportunities.
How It Works
RSI Calculation : The indicator calculates the Relative Strength Index (RSI) based on the selected source and period length.
Normalization : The RSI values are normalized to fit within a range of -1 to 1, which is essential for the Fisher Transform.
Fisher Transform : The normalized RSI values undergo the Fisher Transform, converting them into a Gaussian normal distribution.
Smoothing : The transformed values are smoothed using a simple moving average to reduce noise and provide more reliable signals.
Signal Line : A signal line, which is a simple moving average of the smoothed Fisher Transform, is plotted to identify crossover points.
Alerts and Visuals : Custom alert conditions are set for bullish and bearish crossovers, and the background color changes to indicate these conditions.
Usage Instructions
Trend Identification : Use the Fisher Transform on RSI to identify overbought and oversold conditions with enhanced precision, aiding in spotting potential trend reversals.
Trade Signals : Monitor the crossovers between the smoothed Fisher Transform and the signal line. A bullish crossover suggests a potential buying opportunity, while a bearish crossover indicates a potential selling opportunity.
Alerts : Set custom alerts based on the built-in conditions to receive notifications when important crossover events occur, ensuring you never miss a trading opportunity.
Visual Cues : Utilize the background color changes to quickly identify bullish (green) and bearish (red) conditions, providing immediate visual feedback on market sentiment.
Complementary Analysis : Combine this indicator with other technical analysis tools and indicators to enhance your overall trading strategy and make more informed decisions.
Comprehensive Market Overview1. What is this indicator about?
The "Comprehensive Market Overview" indicator provides a holistic view of the market by incorporating several key metrics:
Close Price: Displays the current close price below each candle.
Percent from All-Time High: Calculates how far the current close price is from the highest high observed over a specified period.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Measures the momentum of price movements to assess whether a stock is overbought or oversold.
Volume Gain: Computes the current volume relative to its 20-period simple moving average (SMA), indicating volume strength or weakness.
Volatility: Quantifies market volatility by calculating the ratio of the Bollinger Bands' width (difference between upper and lower bands) to the SMA.
2. How it works?
Close Price Label: This label is displayed below each bar, showing the current close price.
Percent from All-Time High: Calculates the percentage difference between the highest high observed (all-time high) and the current close price.
RSI Calculation: Computes the RSI using a 14-period setting, providing insight into whether a stock is potentially overbought or oversold.
Volume Strength: Computes the current volume divided by its 20-period SMA, indicating whether volume is above or below average.
Volatility Calculation: Calculates the width of the Bollinger Bands (based on a 20-period SMA and 2 standard deviations) and expresses it as a percentage of the SMA, providing a measure of market volatility
3.Correct Trend Identification with Indicators
All-Time High (ATH) Levels:
Low Value (Near ATH): When the percent from ATH is low (close to 0%), it indicates that the current price is near the all-time high zone. This suggests strong bullish momentum and potential resistance levels.
High Value (Below ATH): A high percentage from ATH indicates how much the current price is below the all-time high. This could signal potential support levels or opportunities for price recovery towards previous highs.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Overbought (High RSI): RSI values above 70 typically indicate that the asset is overbought, suggesting a potential reversal or correction in price.
Oversold (Low RSI): RSI values below 30 indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound or price increase.
Swing Trading Strategies
Confirmation with Visual Analysis: Visualizing the chart to confirm ATH levels and RSI readings can provide strong indications of market sentiment and potential trading opportunities:
Bullish Signals: Look for prices near ATH with RSI confirming strength (not yet overbought), indicating potential continuation or breakout.
Bearish Signals: Prices significantly below ATH with RSI showing weakness (not yet oversold), indicating potential for a bounce or reversal.
Volume Confirmation: Comparing current volume to its SMA helps confirm the strength of price movements. Higher current volume relative to the SMA suggests strong price action.
Volatility Assessment: Monitoring volatility through the Bollinger Bands' width ratio helps assess potential price swings. Narrow bands suggest low volatility, while wide bands indicate higher volatility and potential trading opportunities.
4.Entry and Exit Points:
Entry: Consider entering long positions near support levels when prices are below ATH and RSI is oversold. Conversely, enter short positions near resistance levels when prices are near ATH and RSI is overbought.
Exit: Exit long positions near resistance or ATH levels when prices show signs of resistance or RSI becomes overbought. Exit short positions near support levels or when prices rebound from oversold conditions.
Risk Management: Always incorporate risk management techniques such as setting stop-loss orders based on support and resistance levels identified through ATH and RSI analysis.
Implementation Example
Biquad MACDThis indicator reimagines the traditional MACD by incorporating a biquad band pass filter, offering a refined approach to identifying momentum and trend changes in price data. The standard MACD is essentially a band pass filter, but often it lacks precision. The biquad band pass filter addresses this limitation by providing a more focused frequency range, enhancing the quality of signals.
The MACD Length parameter determines the length of the band pass filter, influencing the frequency range that is isolated. Adjusting this length allows you to focus on different parts of the price movement spectrum.
The Bandwidth (BW) setting controls the width of the frequency band in octaves. It affects the smoothness of the MACD line. A larger bandwidth results in less smooth output, capturing a broader range of frequencies, while a smaller bandwidth focuses on a narrower range, providing a smoother signal.
The Signal Length parameter sets the period for the exponential moving average of the MACD line, which acts as a signal line to identify potential buy and sell points.
Key Features of the Biquad MACD
The MACD is a well-known momentum indicator used to identify changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price. By applying a biquad band pass filter, this version of the MACD provides a more refined and accurate representation of price movements.
The biquad filter offers smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making it ideal for technical analysis. The customizable MACD length and bandwidth allow for flexible adaptation to different trading strategies and market conditions. The signal line smooths the MACD values, providing clear crossover points to indicate potential market entry and exit signals.
The histogram visually represents the difference between the MACD and the signal line, changing colors to indicate rising or falling momentum, which helps in quickly identifying trend changes.
By incorporating the Biquad MACD into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into momentum and trend changes, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Stochastic Biquad Band Pass FilterThis indicator combines the power of a biquad band pass filter with the popular stochastic oscillator to provide a unique tool for analyzing price movements.
The Filter Length parameter determines the center frequency of the biquad band pass filter, affecting which frequency band is isolated. Adjusting this parameter allows you to focus on different parts of the price movement spectrum.
The Bandwidth (BW) controls the width of the frequency band in octaves. It represents the bandwidth between -3 dB frequencies for the band pass filter. A narrower bandwidth results in a more focused filtering effect, isolating a tighter range of frequencies.
The %K Length parameter sets the period for the stochastic calculation, determining the range over which the stochastic values are calculated.
The %K Smoothing parameter applies a simple moving average to the %K values to smooth out the oscillator line.
The %D Length parameter sets the period for the %D line, which is a simple moving average of the %K line, providing a signal line for the oscillator.
Key Features of the Stochastic Biquad Band Pass Filter
Biquad filters are known for their smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making them ideal for technical analysis. In this implementation, the biquad filter is configured as a band pass filter, which allows frequencies within a specified band to pass while attenuating frequencies outside this band. This is particularly useful in trading to isolate specific price movements, making it easier to detect patterns and trends within a targeted frequency range.
The stochastic oscillator is a popular momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. Combining it with a biquad band pass filter enhances its effectiveness by focusing on specific frequency bands of price movements.
By incorporating this stochastic biquad band pass filter into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into specific frequency bands of price movements, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Biquad Band Pass FilterThis indicator utilizes a biquad band pass filter to isolate and highlight a specific frequency band in price data, helping traders focus on price movements within a targeted frequency range.
The Length parameter determines the center frequency of the filter, affecting which frequency band is isolated. Adjusting this parameter allows you to focus on different parts of the price movement spectrum.
The Bandwidth (BW) controls the width of the frequency band in octaves. It represents the bandwidth between -3 dB frequencies for the band pass filter. A narrower bandwidth results in a more focused filtering effect, isolating a tighter range of frequencies.
Key Features of Biquad Filters
Biquad filters are a type of digital filter that provides a combination of low-pass, high-pass, band-pass, and notch filtering capabilities. In this implementation, the biquad filter is configured as a band pass filter, which allows frequencies within a specified band to pass while attenuating frequencies outside this band. This is particularly useful in trading to isolate specific price movements, making it easier to detect patterns and trends within a targeted frequency range.
Biquad filters are known for their smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making them ideal for technical analysis. The customizable length and bandwidth allow for flexible adaptation to different trading strategies and market conditions. Designed for real-time charting, the biquad filter operates efficiently without significant lag, ensuring timely analysis.
By incorporating this biquad band pass filter into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into specific frequency bands of price movements, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Biquad High Pass FilterThis indicator utilizes a biquad high pass filter to filter out low-frequency components from price data, helping traders focus on high-frequency movements and detect rapid changes in trends.
The Length parameter determines the cutoff frequency of the filter, affecting how quickly the filter responds to changes in price. A shorter length allows the filter to react more quickly to high-frequency movements.
The Q Factor controls the sharpness of the filter. A higher Q value results in a more precise filtering effect by narrowing the frequency band. However, be cautious when setting the Q factor too high, as it can induce resonance, amplifying certain frequencies and potentially making the filter less effective by introducing unwanted noise.
Key Features of Biquad Filters
Biquad filters are a type of digital filter that provides a combination of low-pass, high-pass, band-pass, and notch filtering capabilities. In this implementation, the biquad filter is configured as a high pass filter, which allows high-frequency signals to pass while attenuating lower-frequency components. This is particularly useful in trading to highlight rapid price movements, making it easier to spot short-term trends and patterns.
Biquad filters are known for their smooth response and minimal phase distortion, making them ideal for technical analysis. The customizable length and Q factor allow for flexible adaptation to different trading strategies and market conditions. Designed for real-time charting, the biquad filter operates efficiently without significant lag, ensuring timely analysis.
By incorporating this biquad high pass filter into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your chart analysis with clearer insights into rapid price movements, leading to more informed trading decisions.
Strategy SEMA SDI WebhookPurpose of the Code:
The strategy utilizes Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and Smoothed Directional Indicators (SDI) to generate buy and sell signals. It includes features like leverage, take profit, stop loss, and trailing stops. The strategy is intended for backtesting and automating trades based on the specified indicators and conditions.
Key Components and Functionalities:
1.Strategy Settings:
Overlay: The strategy will overlay on the price chart.
Slippage: Set to 1.
Commission Value: Set to 0.035.
Default Quantity Type: Percent of equity.
Default Quantity Value: 50% of equity.
Initial Capital: Set to 1000 units.
Calculation on Order Fills: Enabled.
Process Orders on Close: Enabled.
2.Date and Time Filters:
Inputs for enabling/disabling start and end dates.
Filters to execute strategy only within specified date range.
3.Leverage and Quantity:
Leverage: Adjustable leverage input (default 3).
USD Percentage: Adjustable percentage of equity to use for trades (default 50%).
Initial Capital: Calculated based on leverage and percentage of equity.
4.Take Profit, Stop Loss, and Trailing Stop:
Inputs for enabling/disabling take profit, stop loss, and trailing stop.
Adjustable parameters for take profit percentage (default 25%), stop loss percentage (default 4.8%), and trailing stop percentage (default 1.9%).
Calculations for take profit, stop loss, trailing price, and maximum profit tracking.
5.EMA Calculations:
Fast and slow EMAs.
Smoothed versions of the fast and slow EMAs.
6.SDI Calculations:
Directional movement calculation for positive and negative directional indicators.
Difference between the positive and negative directional indicators, smoothed.
7.Buy/Sell Conditions:
Long (Buy) Condition: Positive DI is greater than negative DI, and fast EMA is greater than slow EMA.
Short (Sell) Condition: Negative DI is greater than positive DI, and fast EMA is less than slow EMA.
8.Strategy Execution:
If buy conditions are met, close any short positions and enter a long position.
If sell conditions are met, close any long positions and enter a short position.
Exit conditions for long and short positions based on take profit, stop loss, and trailing stop levels.
Close all positions if outside the specified date range.
Usage:
This strategy is used to automate trading based on the specified conditions involving EMAs and SDI. It allows backtesting to evaluate performance based on historical data. The strategy includes risk management through take profit, stop loss, and trailing stops to protect gains and limit losses. Traders can customize the parameters to fit their specific trading preferences and risk tolerance. Differently, it can perform leverage analysis and use it as a template.
By using this strategy, traders can systematically execute trades based on technical indicators, helping to remove emotional bias and improve consistency in trading decisions.
Important Note:
This script is provided for educational and template purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Traders and investors should conduct their research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
Internal Bar Strength IBS [Anan]This indicator calculates and displays the Internal Bar Strength (IBS) along with its moving average. The IBS is a measure that represents where the closing price is relative to the high-low range of a given period.
█ Main Formula
The core of this indicator is the Internal Bar Strength (IBS) calculation. The basic IBS formula is:
ibs = (close - low) / (high - low)
I enhanced the original formula by incorporating a user-defined length parameter. This modification allows for greater flexibility in analysis and interpretation. The extended version enables users to adjust the indicator's length according to their specific needs or market conditions. Notably, setting the length parameter to 1 reproduces the behavior of the original formula, maintaining backward compatibility while offering expanded functionality:
ibs = (close - ta.lowest(low, ibs_length)) / (ta.highest(high, ibs_length) - ta.lowest(low, ibs_length))
Where:
- `close` is the closing price of the current bar
- `lowest low` is the lowest low price over the specified IBS length
- `highest high` is the highest high price over the specified IBS length
█ Key Features
- Calculates IBS using a user-defined length
- Applies a moving average to the IBS values
- Offers multiple moving average types
- Includes optional Bollinger Bands or Donchian Channel overlays
- Visualizes bull and bear areas
█ Inputs
- IBS Length: The period used for IBS calculation
- MA Type: The type of moving average applied to IBS (options: SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, VWMA, Bollinger Bands, Donchian)
- MA Length: The period used for the moving average calculation
- BB StdDev: Standard deviation multiplier for Bollinger Bands
█ How to Use and Interpret
1. IBS Line Interpretation:
- IBS values range from 0 to 1
- Values close to 1 indicate the close was near the high, suggesting a bullish sentiment
- Values close to 0 indicate the close was near the low, suggesting a bearish sentiment
- Values around 0.5 suggest the close was near the middle of the range
2. Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
- IBS values above 0.8 (teal zone) may indicate overbought conditions
- IBS values below 0.2 (red zone) may indicate oversold conditions
- These zones can be used to identify potential reversal points
3. Trend Identification:
- Consistent IBS values above 0.5 may indicate an uptrend
- Consistent IBS values below 0.5 may indicate a downtrend
4. Using Moving Averages:
- The yellow MA line can help smooth out IBS fluctuations
- Crossovers between the IBS and its MA can signal potential trend changes
5. Bollinger Bands/Donchian Channel:
- When enabled, these can provide additional context for overbought/oversold conditions
- IBS touching or exceeding the upper band may indicate overbought conditions
- IBS touching or falling below the lower band may indicate oversold conditions
Remember that no single indicator should be used in isolation. Always combine IBS analysis with other technical indicators, price action analysis, and broader market context for more reliable trading decisions.
MTF-Colored EMA Difference and Stochastic indicatorThis indicator combines two popular technical analysis tools: the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Stochastic Oscillator, with the added flexibility of analyzing them across multiple time frames. It visually represents the difference between two EMAs and the crossover signals from the Stochastic Oscillator, providing a comprehensive view of the market conditions.
Components:
EMA Difference Histogram :
EMA Calculation : The indicator calculates two EMAs (EMA1 and EMA2) for the selected time frame.
EMA Difference : The difference between EMA1 and EMA2 is plotted as a 4 coloured histogram.
Stochastic Oscillato r:
Calculation : The %K and %D lines of the Stochastic Oscillator are calculated for the selected time frame.
Additional Confirmation via Colors :
Green: %K is above %D, indicating a bullish signal.
Red: %K is below %D, indicating a bearish signal.
Entry and Exit Strategies
Entry Strategy :
Bullish Entry :
Condition 1: The histogram is Dark green (indicating a strong upward trend).
Condition 2: The Stochastic colour is green (%K is above %D).
Bearish Entry :
Condition 1: The histogram is Dark Red (indicating a strong downward trend).
Condition 2: The Stochastic colour is red (%K is below %D).
Exit Strategy:
Bullish Exit:
Condition: The Stochastic colour turns red (%K crosses below %D).
Bearish Exit:
Condition: The Stochastic colour turns green (%K crosses above %D).
Additional Considerations:
Time Frame Selection : The chosen time frame for both the EMA and Stochastic calculations should align with the trader’s strategy (e.g., daily for swing trading, hourly for intraday trading).
Risk Management : Implement stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. The stop-loss can be placed below the recent swing low for long positions and above the recent swing high for short positions.
Confirmation : Consider using this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to confirm signals and reduce the likelihood of false entries and exits.
Nebula SAR Echo📈 Overview:
The "Nebula SAR Echo" is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for traders seeking enhanced trend detection. This indicator combines the robust Parabolic SAR mechanism with gradient color coding to provide clear visual insights into market trends.
🎯 Key Features:
Advanced Parabolic SAR Calculation:
Utilizes dynamic coefficients for more responsive and accurate trend detection.
Highlights trend reversals with visual markers for immediate identification.
Gradient Color Coding:
Gradient colors dynamically reflect the strength and direction of the trend.
Bullish trends are represented in shades of green, while bearish trends are shown in shades of red.
User-Friendly Customization:
Easily adjustable parameters for acceleration factors and gradient color use.
💡 Benefits:
Enhanced Decision Making:
Combines real-time trend analysis to assist traders in making more informed decisions.
Visual Clarity:
Clear visual markers and gradient color coding simplify the interpretation of market trends.
Helps traders quickly identify key turning points and potential future price paths.
🔍 Use Cases:
Trend Identification:
Ideal for identifying ongoing trends and potential reversals in various market conditions.
Useful for both short-term trading strategies and long-term investment planning.
Risk Management:
Gradient color coding aids in assessing trend strength and potential volatility.
Traders can set more precise stop-loss and take-profit levels based on the trend strength.
⚙️ How to Use:
1. Parameter Setup:
Set the desired acceleration factors (start, increment, and max) for the Parabolic SAR.
Enable or disable gradient colors based on personal preference.
2. Interpretation:
Use the SAR values and gradient colors to gauge current market trends.
3. Alerts:
Set up alert conditions for bullish and bearish reversals to stay notified of significant market changes.
🔹 Conclusion:
The "Nebula SAR Echo" is a versatile and powerful tool for traders who require an in-depth analysis of market trends. By leveraging the advanced Parabolic SAR calculation and gradient color coding, this indicator provides a comprehensive view of market conditions, making it an indispensable addition to any trader's toolkit.
Super Adaptive RSI [Quantigenics]The Super Adaptive RSI Indicator is an advanced technical analysis tool designed to measure market momentum and identify potential trend reversals in financial markets. Unlike the traditional RSI indicator, the Super Adaptive RSI adapts to changing market volatility, in real-time, making it more responsive and accurate under various market conditions. The core innovation of this script lies in its dynamic adjustment of the RSI calculation based on the Average True Range (ATR), providing a more nuanced and reliable analysis of market conditions.
Key Features:
Adaptive RSI Calculation: Unlike the traditional RSI, the Super Adaptive RSI adjusts its calculation dynamically based on the ATR. This dynamic adjustment makes the indicator more sensitive during high volatility periods and less sensitive during low volatility periods, thereby reducing noise and improving signal accuracy.
Customizable Levels: Users can define the overbought and oversold levels, allowing flexibility based on different trading strategies and asset characteristics. This customization helps traders tailor the indicator to their specific needs.
Visual Alerts: The indicator includes visual alerts for overbought and oversold conditions, aiding traders in making timely decisions. These alerts are triggered when the smoothed RSI crosses above the oversold threshold or crosses below the overbought threshold.
Smoothing Options: The RSI value can be smoothed over a user-defined period, which helps in filtering out market noise and focusing on significant trends. The smoothing is done using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) to provide a clear view of the trend direction.
Technical Details:
ATR-Based Adjustment: The indicator calculates the ATR over a user-defined range (default is the average of a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 8 periods). The length of the RSI calculation is then adjusted based on this ATR value, allowing the RSI to adapt to current market conditions. Specifically, the ATR is used to determine the dynamic length of the RSI, which is recalculated for each new bar.
RSI Calculation: The RSI is calculated using the following steps:
1. Net Change Average: This is computed as a running average of the price changes, adjusted by a smoothing factor based on the adaptive length.
2. Total Change Average: This is the running average of the absolute price changes.
3. RSI Value: The RSI value is then derived from the ratio of the Net Change Average to the Total Change Average, scaled to fit within a 0-100 range.
Smoothing: The smoothed RSI is obtained by applying a Simple Moving Average (SMA) to the RSI values over a user-defined period (default is 3 periods).
Plotting and Visualization: The indicator plots the smoothed RSI along with the overbought and oversold levels on a separate pane. The colors of the RSI line change based on its position relative to these levels, providing immediate visual cues. Additionally, shaded areas are filled to highlight overbought and oversold zones.
User Instructions for Configuring the Super Adaptive RSI Indicator:
Source (Price): Select the price data that the indicator will use for calculations (default is hlc3 - the average of high, low, and close prices).
Max ATR Length: Set the upper boundary for market volatility analysis, determining the maximum sensitivity of the RSI (default is 8). This influences the dynamic length used in the RSI calculation.
Min ATR Length: Set the lower boundary for market volatility analysis, establishing the minimum sensitivity of the RSI (default is 3). This ensures that the RSI length does not become too short during low volatility periods.
Oversold Level: Define the value at which the asset is considered to be oversold (default is 30). This level helps identify potential buying opportunities.
Oversold Color: Choose a color to represent the oversold condition on the chart, enhancing visual clarity (default is blue).
Middle Level: Set the middle value for the RSI, often used as a neutral zone (default is 50).
Middle Level Color: Select a color for the middle level line on the chart for better visual representation (default is gray).
Overbought Level: Set the point at which the asset is deemed overbought (default is 70). This level helps identify potential selling opportunities.
Overbought Color: Choose a color to represent the overbought condition on the chart, making it easy to identify (default is red).
RSI Smoothing Length: Adjust the smoothing period for the RSI to control the responsiveness of the indicator line (default is 3). A longer smoothing period results in a smoother but less responsive RSI line.
How This Indicator Differs from the Traditional RSI Indicator:
The Super Adaptive RSI Indicator is not just another RSI tool. Its unique feature of dynamically adjusting the RSI calculation based on ATR sets it apart from conventional RSI indicators. This makes it particularly useful in volatile markets where static indicators often fail to provide accurate signals. The ability to customize key levels and smoothing options further enhances its utility, allowing traders to tailor the indicator to their specific trading strategies.
By offering a more adaptive and reliable measure of market conditions, this indicator helps traders make better-informed decisions, reducing the risk of false signals and improving overall trading performance. The visual alerts and color-coded RSI line provide immediate feedback, enhancing the trader’s ability to react to market changes.
Although the Super Adaptive RSI Indicator Is an invite-only script we’re offering it at no cost to anyone who wishes to use it.
TechniTrend RSI (11TF)Multi-Timeframe RSI Indicator
Overview
The Multi-Timeframe RSI Indicator is a sophisticated tool designed to provide comprehensive insights into the Relative Strength Index (RSI) across 11 different timeframes simultaneously. This indicator is essential for traders who wish to monitor RSI trends and their moving averages (MA) to make informed trading decisions.
Features
Multiple Timeframes: Displays RSI and RSI MA values for 11 different timeframes, allowing traders to have a holistic view of the market conditions.
RSI vs. MA Comparison: Indicates whether the RSI value is above or below its moving average for each timeframe, helping traders to identify bullish or bearish momentum.
Overbought/Oversold Signals:
Marks "OS" (OverSell) when RSI falls below 25, indicating a potential oversold condition.
Marks "OB" (OverBuy) when RSI exceeds 75, signaling a potential overbought condition.
Real-Time Updates: Continuously updates in real-time to provide the most current market information.
Usage
This indicator is invaluable for traders who utilize RSI as part of their technical analysis strategy. By monitoring multiple timeframes, traders can:
Identify key overbought and oversold levels to make entry and exit decisions.
Observe the momentum shifts indicated by RSI crossing above or below its moving average.
Enhance their trading strategy by integrating multi-timeframe analysis for better accuracy and confirmation.
How to Interpret the Indicator
RSI Above MA: Indicates a potential bullish trend. Traders may consider looking for long positions.
RSI Below MA: Suggests a potential bearish trend. Traders may look for short positions.
OS (OverSell): When RSI < 25, the market may be oversold, presenting potential buying opportunities.
OB (OverBuy): When RSI > 75, the market may be overbought, indicating potential selling opportunities.
Filtered MACD with Backtest [UAlgo]The "Filtered MACD with Backtest " indicator is an advanced trading tool designed for the TradingView platform. It combines the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with additional filters such as Moving Average (MA) and Average Directional Index (ADX) to enhance trading signals. This indicator aims to provide more reliable entry and exit points by filtering out noise and confirming trends. Additionally, it includes a comprehensive backtesting module to simulate trading strategies and assess their performance based on historical data. The visual backtest module allows traders to see potential trades directly on the chart, making it easier to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategy.
🔶 Customizable Parameters :
Price Source Selection: Users can choose their preferred price source for calculations, providing flexibility in analysis.
Filter Parameters:
MA Filter: Option to use a Moving Average filter with types such as EMA, SMA, WMA, RMA, and VWMA, and a customizable length.
ADX Filter: Option to use an ADX filter with adjustable length and threshold to determine trend strength.
MACD Parameters: Customizable fast length, slow length, and signal smoothing for the MACD indicator.
Backtest Module:
Entry Type: Supports "Buy and Sell", "Buy", and "Sell" strategies.
Stop Loss Types: Choose from ATR-based, fixed point, or X bar high/low stop loss methods.
Reward to Risk Ratio: Set the desired take profit level relative to the stop loss.
Backtest Visuals: Display entry, stop loss, and take profit levels directly on the chart with
colored backgrounds.
Alerts: Configurable alerts for buy and sell signals.
🔶 Filtered MACD : Understanding How Filters Work with ADX and MA
ADX Filter:
The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures the strength of a trend. The script calculates ADX using the user-defined length and applies a threshold value.
Trading Signals with ADX Filter:
Buy Signal: A regular MACD buy signal (crossover of MACD line above the signal line) is only considered valid if the ADX is above the set threshold. This suggests a stronger uptrend to potentially capitalize on.
Sell Signal: Conversely, a regular MACD sell signal (crossunder of MACD line below the signal line) is only considered valid if the ADX is above the threshold, indicating a stronger downtrend for potential shorting opportunities.
Benefits: The ADX filter helps avoid whipsaws or false signals that might occur during choppy market conditions with weak trends.
MA Filter:
You can choose from various Moving Average (MA) types (EMA, SMA, WMA, RMA, VWMA) for the filter. The script calculates the chosen MA based on the user-defined length.
Trading Signals with MA Filter:
Buy Signal: A regular MACD buy signal is only considered valid if the closing price is above the MA value. This suggests a potential uptrend confirmed by the price action staying above the moving average.
Sell Signal: Conversely, a regular MACD sell signal is only considered valid if the closing price is below the MA value. This suggests a potential downtrend confirmed by the price action staying below the moving average.
Benefits: The MA filter helps identify potential trend continuation opportunities by ensuring the price aligns with the chosen moving average direction.
Combining Filters:
You can choose to use either the ADX filter, the MA filter, or both depending on your strategy preference. Using both filters adds an extra layer of confirmation for your signals.
🔶 Backtesting Module
The backtesting module in this script allows you to visually assess how the filtered MACD strategy would have performed on historical data. Here's a deeper dive into its features:
Backtesting Type: You can choose to backtest for buy signals only, sell signals only, or both. This allows you to analyze the strategy's effectiveness in different market conditions.
Stop-Loss Types: You can define how stop-loss orders are placed:
ATR (Average True Range): This uses a volatility measure (ATR) multiplied by a user-defined factor to set the stop-loss level.
Fixed Point: This allows you to specify a fixed dollar amount or percentage value as the stop-loss.
X bar High/Low: This sets the stop-loss at a certain number of bars (defined by the user) above/below the bar's high (for long positions) or low (for short positions).
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Define the desired ratio between your potential profit and potential loss on each trade. The backtesting module will calculate take-profit levels based on this ratio and the stop-loss placement.
🔶 Disclaimer:
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple (BPM)The Bitcoin Puell Multiple is a key indicator for evaluating buying and selling opportunities based on the profitability of Bitcoin miners.
The Idea
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple is a ratio that measures the daily profitability of Bitcoin miners in relation to the historical annual average of this profitability. It is calculated by dividing the amount of newly issued Bitcoins (in USD) each day by the 365-day moving average of that same amount. This indicator provides valuable information on Bitcoin's market cycles, helping investors to identify periods when Bitcoin is potentially undervalued or overvalued.
How to Use
To use the Bitcoin Puell Multiple, investors watch for extreme levels of the indicator. A high Puell Multiple suggests that miners are making exceptionally high profits compared to the previous year, which could indicate an overvaluation of Bitcoin and a selling opportunity (red zones). Conversely, a low Puell Multiple indicates that miners' earnings are low relative to history, suggesting an undervaluation of Bitcoin and a potential buying opportunity (green zones). The trigger thresholds for these zones can be configured in the tool's parameters.
What makes this tool different from the other "Puell Multiple" scripts available is that it is up to date in terms of its data sources, with a more precise calculation, and allows you to view the entire history.
Zone trigger limits and their visualization, as well as colors, are all configurable via the tool parameters.
Here, for example, is a configuration with more sensitive trigger levels and a different color:
Consecutive Closes Above/Below 3 SMA with Z-Score BandsA simple indicator that measures consecutive closes above & below the 3-period simple moving average. An upper and lower Z-score has been calculated to indicate where the 4 standard deviations of the last 60 bars sits.
Useful for identifying directional runs in price.
Uptrick: Comprehensive Market Sentiment DashboardIntroducing "Uptrick: Comprehensive Market Sentiment Dashboard"—an advanced trading indicator designed to provide traders with a complete and detailed overview of market conditions for multiple assets at a glance. This sophisticated tool is engineered to enhance your trading decisions by consolidating key technical indicators into a single, easy-to-read dashboard. Perfect for both novice and experienced traders, the Uptrick Dashboard is built to offer a competitive edge in the dynamic world of trading.
### Purpose
The primary goal of the Uptrick Dashboard is to equip traders with a powerful, all-in-one solution that streamlines market analysis. By combining multiple technical indicators and presenting their outputs in a cohesive format, this dashboard eliminates the need to toggle between different charts and tools. It delivers a clear, immediate understanding of market sentiment across various assets, enabling faster and more informed trading decisions.
### Features and Inputs
The Uptrick Dashboard integrates several widely-used technical indicators, each customizable to fit your specific trading strategy. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the features and input parameters:
1. **Exponential Moving Average (EMA)**
- **Input Parameter:** EMA Length
- **Purpose:** Tracks the asset’s price trend by smoothing out price data over a specified period.
2. **Simple Moving Average (SMA)**
- **Input Parameter:** SMA Length
- **Purpose:** Provides a simpler, more straightforward calculation of price trends compared to EMA.
3. **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**
- **Input Parameter:** RSI Length
- **Purpose:** Measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.
4. **Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)**
- **Input Parameters:** MACD Fast Length, MACD Slow Length, MACD Signal Length
- **Purpose:** Identifies changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend.
5. **Bollinger Bands (BB)**
- **Input Parameters:** BB Length, BB StdDev
- **Purpose:** Provides a visual representation of volatility and relative price levels over a specified period.
6. **Ichimoku Cloud**
- **Input Parameters:** Ichimoku Tenkan Length, Ichimoku Kijun Length, Ichimoku Span A Length, Ichimoku Span B Length
- **Purpose:** Offers a comprehensive view of support and resistance levels, momentum, and trend direction.
7. **Supertrend**
- **Input Parameters:** Supertrend ATR Length, Supertrend Multiplier
- **Purpose:** Combines trend direction and volatility to provide buy and sell signals.
8. **Symbols Input**
- **Input Parameter:** Symbols (comma separated)
- **Purpose:** Allows users to specify and monitor multiple assets simultaneously.
### Customization and Flexibility
Each indicator within the Uptrick Dashboard is fully customizable, allowing you to adjust parameters to align with your trading strategy. Whether you prefer short-term trading with faster indicators or long-term analysis with slower, more reliable data, this dashboard can be tailored to meet your needs.
### Key Differentiators
What sets the Uptrick Dashboard apart from other market sentiment tools is its unparalleled integration of multiple technical indicators into a single, comprehensive view. This consolidation not only saves time but also provides a more holistic understanding of market conditions. Here’s what makes the Uptrick Dashboard unique:
- **Integrated Analysis:** Combines multiple indicators to provide a unified market sentiment.
- **Customizable Inputs:** Each indicator can be adjusted to suit your specific trading strategy.
- **Multi-Asset Monitoring:** Track and analyze several assets simultaneously.
- **User-Friendly Interface:** Designed for ease of use, presenting data in an organized, visually appealing format.
- **Real-Time Updates:** Continuously updates to reflect the latest market data.
### Future Updates
We are committed to continually improving the Uptrick Dashboard to ensure it remains a valuable tool in your trading arsenal. Users can expect regular updates that will introduce new features, enhance existing functionalities, and incorporate user feedback. Future updates may include:
- **Additional Indicators:** Introducing new technical indicators to provide even deeper insights.
- **Enhanced Visualization:** Improved graphical representations for better data interpretation.
- **Automation Features:** Tools to automate certain trading strategies based on indicator outputs.
- **User Customization:** More options for personalizing the dashboard to fit individual preferences.
### How It Works
The Uptrick Dashboard operates by calculating key technical indicators for each specified asset and displaying the results in a neatly organized table. Here’s a closer look at how it works:
1. **Input Parameters:** Users input their preferred settings for each indicator, including the list of assets to monitor.
2. **Data Retrieval:** The dashboard retrieves real-time market data for each specified asset.
3. **Indicator Calculation:** Using the input parameters, the dashboard calculates the values for each technical indicator.
4. **Visual Display:** Results are displayed in a table format, highlighting key information such as price, 24-hour change, and sentiment indicators (e.g., MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands).
5. **Final Position:** The dashboard calculates an overall market position (Long, Short, or Neutral) based on the combined outputs of the individual indicators.
### Conclusion
The "Uptrick: Comprehensive Market Sentiment Dashboard" is a must-have tool for traders seeking a streamlined, efficient way to monitor market conditions across multiple assets. By integrating essential technical indicators into a single, customizable dashboard, it provides a comprehensive view of market sentiment, facilitating quicker and more informed trading decisions. Stay ahead of the market with Uptrick and experience the difference that a well-designed, all-in-one trading tool can make.
With regular updates and a commitment to excellence, the Uptrick Dashboard is poised to evolve continually, adapting to the changing needs of traders and the dynamics of the market. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, the Uptrick Dashboard offers the insights and flexibility needed to enhance your trading strategy. Invest in the Uptrick Dashboard today and take your trading to the next level.
Strength Measurement -HTThe Strength Measurement -HT indicator is a tool designed to measure the strength and trend of a security using the Average Directional Index (ADX) across multiple time frames. This script averages the ADX values from five different time frames to provide a comprehensive view of the trend's strength, helping traders make more informed decisions.
Key Features:
Multi-Time Frame Analysis: The indicator calculates ADX values from five different time frames (5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours) to offer a more holistic view of the market trend.
Trend Strength Visualization: The average ADX value is plotted as a histogram, with colors indicating the trend strength and direction, making it easy to visualize and interpret.
Reference Levels: The script includes horizontal lines at ADX levels 25, 50, and 75 to signify weak, strong, and very strong trends, respectively.
How It Works
Directional Movement Calculation: The script calculates the positive and negative directional movements (DI+) and (DI-) using the true range over a specified period (default is 14 periods).
ADX Calculation: The ADX value is derived from the smoothed moving average of the absolute difference between DI+ and DI-, normalized by their sum.
Multi-Time Frame ADX: ADX values are computed for the 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour time frames.
Average ADX: The script averages the ADX values from the different time frames to generate a single, comprehensive ADX value.
Trend Visualization: The average ADX value is plotted as a histogram with colors indicating:
Gray for weak trends (ADX < 25)
Green for strengthening trends (25 ≤ ADX < 50)
Dark Green for strong trends (ADX ≥ 50)
Light Red for weakening trends (ADX < 25)
Red for strong trends turning weak (ADX ≥ 25)
Usage
Trend Detection: Use the color-coded histogram to quickly identify the trend strength and direction. Green indicates a strengthening trend, while red signifies a weakening trend.
Reference Levels: Utilize the horizontal lines at ADX levels 25, 50, and 75 as reference points to gauge the trend's strength.
ADX < 25 suggests a weak trend.
ADX between 25 and 50 indicates a moderate to strong trend.
ADX > 50 points to a very strong trend.
Multi-Time Frame Insight: Leverage the averaged ADX value to gain insights from multiple time frames, helping you make more informed trading decisions based on a broader market perspective.
Feel free to explore and integrate this indicator into your trading strategy to enhance your market analysis and decision-making process. Happy trading!
D2MAThe script is called "D2MA" (Distance to Moving Average). It calculates the distance between the closing price and a user-selected type of moving average (MA). It also plots this distance on a chart, allowing users to see how far the price is from the chosen moving average. Users can choose to display this distance as either an absolute value or as a percentage.
Input Parameters
Length (len): The number of bars (or periods) used to calculate the moving average.
Source (src): The price data used for calculations, typically the closing price.
Percentage Distance (pc): A boolean option to display the distance as a percentage instead of an absolute value.
MA Type (maType): The type of moving average to use.
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
Triple Exponential Moving Average (T3)
Power Weighted Moving Average (PWMA)
The script includes functions to calculate different types of moving averages:
The difference between the source price (e.g., closing price) and the calculated moving average. if Distance as Percentage , the distance expressed as a percentage of the moving average value.
Plotting the Data
Signal Line: The signal line changes colour (green or red) based on whether the distance is increasing or decreasing.
Visual Representation
How to Use
Identify Trends: By seeing how far the price is from a selected moving average, traders can gauge the strength of a trend.
Spot Reversals: Significant deviations from the moving average can signal potential reversals.
RSI Trail [UAlgo]The RSI Trail indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders in making informed decisions by utilizing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and various moving average calculations. This indicator dynamically plots support and resistance levels based on RSI values, providing visual cues for potential bullish and bearish signals. The inclusion of a trailing stop mechanism allows traders to adapt to market volatility, ensuring optimal entry and exit points.
🔶 Key Features
Multiple Moving Average Types: Choose from Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Running Moving Average (RMA), and McGinley Dynamic for diverse analytical approaches.
Configurable RSI Bounds: Tailor the RSI lower and upper bounds to your specific trading preferences, with default settings at 40 and 60.
Signals: The indicator determines bullish and bearish market states and plots corresponding signals on the chart.
Customizable Visualization: Options to display the midline and color candles based on market state enhance visual analysis.
Alerts: Integrated alert conditions notify you of bullish and bearish signals.
🔶 Calculations
The RSI Trail indicator calculates dynamic support and resistance levels using a combination of moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It starts by computing a chosen moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, or McGinley) over a period of 27 using the typical price (ohlc4).
The indicator then defines upper and lower bounds based on customizable RSI levels (default 40 and 60) and adjusts these bounds using the Average True Range (ATR) to account for market volatility. The upper bound is calculated by adding a volatility-adjusted value to the moving average, while the lower bound is found by subtracting this value. Bullish signals occur when the price crosses above the upper bound, and bearish signals when it falls below the lower bound.
The RSI Trail indicator also can be used to identify pullback opportunities. When the price high/low crosses above/below the calculated upper/lower bound, it indicates a potential pullback, suggesting a favorable point to enter a trade during a pullback.
🔶 Disclaimer
This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Always conduct your own research and due diligence before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model v3.1🔶 First we need to understand what Power Laws are.
Power laws are mathematical relationships where one quantity varies as a power of another. They are prevalent in both natural and social systems, describing phenomena such as earthquake magnitudes, word frequencies, and wealth distributions. In a power-law relationship, a change in one quantity results in a proportional change in another, typically following a consistent and predictable mathematical pattern.
🔶 Why Do Power Laws work for Bitcoin and Kaspa?
Power laws work for Bitcoin and Kaspa due to the underlying principles of network dynamics and growth patterns that these cryptocurrencies exhibit. Here's how:
1. Network Growth and User Adoption:
Both Bitcoin and Kaspa grow as more users join their networks. The value of these networks often increases in a manner consistent with Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of users. This relationship is a form of a power law, where network effects lead to exponential growth as more users participate.
2. Mining and Hash Rate:
The mining difficulty and hash rate in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Kaspa adjust based on network activity. As more miners join, the difficulty increases to maintain a stable rate of block production. This self-adjusting mechanism creates feedback loops that can be described by power laws, ensuring the stability and security of the network over time.
3. Price Behavior:
Astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi discovered that Bitcoin’s price follows a power-law distribution over time. This means that despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior is predictable and adheres to specific mathematical patterns. Santostasi's model provides a framework for understanding Bitcoin’s price movements and forecasting future trends. He also discovered that Kaspa might be following a power-law aswell but it might be to early to tell because Kaspa hasn't been around for too long(2years).
4. Resource Allocation and System Stability:
As the price of Bitcoin or Kaspa increases, more resources are allocated to mining, leading to more sophisticated mining operations. This iterative process of investment and technological advancement follows a power-law pattern, driving the growth and stability of the network.
In summary, the application of power laws to Bitcoin and Kaspa offers a structured framework for understanding their price movements, network growth, and overall stability. These principles provide valuable predictive tools for long-term forecasting, helping to explain the dynamic behavior of these cryptocurrencies.
🔶 What does it look like on a chart?
Here is the Kaspa power law plotted on the KaspaUSD chart. Notice that the y-axis is in logarithmic scale. Unfortunately, TradingView does not allow the x-axis to be in logarithmic scale, which would otherwise make the power law appear as a straight line.
🔶 All the features of the Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model
This indicator includes a variety of scripts and tools, meticulously designed and developed to navigate the Kaspa market effectively.
🔹 Power Law & Deviation bands
The decision to use the lower two bands, marking an area between -40% to -50% below the power law, is based on historical analysis. Historically, this range has proven to be a great buying opportunity. In the case of Bitcoin, the bottom typically lies around -60% from the power law. However, for Kaspa, the bottom appears to be less distant from the power law. This discrepancy can be attributed to the differing supply dynamics of the two. Bitcoin undergoes a halving event approximately every four years, significantly reducing the rate at which new coins are introduced into circulation. This cyclical halving can lead to larger price fluctuations and a greater deviation from the power law. In contrast, Kaspa employs a more gradual reduction in its emission rate, with a 5% decrease each month. This consistent and incremental reduction helps Kaspa's price follow the power law more closely, resulting in less pronounced deviations. Consequently, the bottom for Kaspa tends to be closer to the power law, typically around -40% to -50%, rather than the -60% observed with Bitcoin.
The top two deviation bands are fitted to a few bubble data points, which are honestly not very reliable compared to the bottom bands that are based on a larger number of data points. When examining Bitcoin, we see that the bottoms are quite predictable due to the availability of thousands of data points, making it easier to identify patterns and trends.
However, predicting the tops is significantly more challenging because we lack a substantial amount of data for the peaks. This limited data makes it difficult to draw reliable conclusions about the upper deviation bands. As a result, while the bottom bands offer a robust framework for analysis, the top bands should be approached with caution due to their lesser reliability.
🔹 Alternating Sine wave
In observing the price behavior of Kaspa, an intriguing pattern emerges: it tends to follow a roughly four-month cycle. This cycle appears to alternate between smaller and larger waves. To capture this pattern, the sine wave in our indicator is designed to follow the power law, with both the top and bottom of the wave adjusting according to it.
Here's a simple explanation of how this works:
1. Four-Month Cycle: Empirically, Kaspa’s price seems to oscillate over approximately 120 days. This cycle includes periods of growth and decline, repeating every four months. Within these cycles, we observe alternating phases one smaller and one larger in amplitude.
2. Power Law Influence: The sine wave component of our indicator is not arbitrary; it follows a power law that predicts the general price trend of Kaspa. The power law essentially provides a baseline that reflects the longer-term price trajectory.
3. Diminishing Returns and Smoothing: To model diminishing returns, we adjust the amplitude of the sine wave over time, making it smaller as the cycle progresses. This helps to capture the natural tendency for price movements to become less volatile over longer periods. Additionally, the bottom of the sine wave adheres to the power law, ensuring it remains consistent with the overall trend.
🔹 Sine wave Cycle Start & End
Color transitions play a crucial role in visualizing different phases of the four-month cycle.
Based on empirical data, Kaspa experiences approximately 60 days of downward price action following each cycle peak, a period we refer to as the bear phase. This phase is followed by the bull phase, which also lasts around 60 days. To indicate the cycle peak, we have added a colored warning on the sine wave.
Cycle Start (Purple): The sine wave starts with a purple color, marking the beginning of a new cycle. This bull phase often represents a potential bottom or accumulation zone where prices are lower and stable, offering a strategic point for entering the market.
Cycle Top (Red): As the cycle progresses, the sine wave transitions through colors until it reaches red. This red phase indicates the top of the cycle, where the price is likely peaking. It's a critical area for investors to consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) out of Kaspa, as it signifies a period of potential overvaluation and heightened risk.
These color transitions provide a visual guide to the market's cyclical nature, helping investors identify optimal entry and exit points. By following the sine wave's color changes, you can better time your investments, entering at the start of the cycle and considering exits as the cycle tops out.
🔹 Colored Deviation from the Power Law Bubbles
In trading, having a clear visual signal can significantly enhance decision-making, especially when dealing with complex models like power laws. This inspired the creation of the "deviation bubbles" in my indicator, which provides an intuitive, color-coded visual queue to help me, and other traders, better grasp market deviations and make timely trading decisions.
Here's a breakdown of how the deviation bubbles work:
1. Power Law Reference: The core of the indicator calculates a theoretical price level (the power law price) for Kaspa.
2. Deviation Calculation: For each day, the indicator computes the percentage deviation of the actual closing price from this power law price. This tells how much the market price diverges from the theoretically expected level.
3. Color-Coding Based on Deviation:
The deviation is categorized into various ranges (e.g., ≥ 100%, 90-100%, 80-90%, etc.).
Each range is assigned a distinct color, from red for extreme positive deviations to blue for extreme negative deviations.
This gradient helps in quickly identifying significant market deviations.
By integrating these bubbles into the chart, the indicator offers a simple yet powerful visual tool, aiding in recognizing critical market conditions without the need to delve into complex calculations manually. This approach not only enhances the ease of trading but also helps in overcoming the hesitation often faced when pulling the trigger on trades.
🔹 Projected Power Law Bands
Extends the current power law bands into the future using the same formula that defines the current power law.
Visual Representation: Dotted lines on the chart indicate the projected power law price and deviation bands.
Limitations: TradingView restricts how far these projections can extend, typically up to a reasonable future period.
These projected bands help anticipate future price movements, aiding in more informed trading decisions.
🔹 Projected Sine Wave
This projection continues to calculate the phase and amplitude, adjusting for diminishing returns and cycle transitions. It also estimates the future power law price, ensuring the projection reflects potential market dynamics.
Visual Representation: The projected sine wave is shown with dotted blue lines, providing a clear visual of the expected trend, aiding traders in their decision-making process.
Limitations: Again, TradingView restricts how far these projections can extend, typically up to a reasonable future period.
🔶 Why are all these different scripts made into one indicator?
As a trader and crypto analyst, I needed specific tools and customizations that no other indicator offered. Being a visual person, I rely heavily on visual triggers such as colors and patterns to make trading decisions. Initially, I developed this indicator for my personal use to enhance my market analysis with these visual cues. However, after sharing my insights, other traders expressed interest in using it. In response, I expanded the functionality and added various options to cater to a broader range of users.
This comprehensive indicator integrates multiple features into one tool, providing a powerful and flexible solution for analyzing market trends and making informed trading decisions. The use of colors and visual elements helps in quickly identifying key signals and market phases. The customizable options allow you to fine-tune the indicator to suit your specific needs, making it a versatile tool for both novice and experienced traders.
🔶 Usage & Settings:
This indicator is best used on the Daily chart for KASUSD - crypto because it uses a power law formula based on days.
🔹 Using the Indicator for 4-Month Cycles:
For traders interested in playing the 4-month cycles, this indicator provides a straightforward strategy. When the bubbles turn purple or the sine wave shows the purple start color, it signals a good time to dollar-cost average (DCA) into the market. Conversely, when the bubbles turn red or the cycle top is near, indicated by a red color, it’s time to DCA out of the Kaspa market. This visual approach helps traders make timely decisions based on color-coded signals, simplifying the trading process.
Historically, it was nearly impossible to accurately time all the 4-month cycle tops because they alternate each time. Without the combination of multiple scripts in this indicator, identifying these cyclical patterns and their respective peaks was extremely challenging. This integrated tool now provides a clear and reliable method for detecting these critical points, enhancing trading effectiveness.
🔹 Combining the visual queues for market extremes
The chart above illustrates the alignment of visual cues indicating market extremes. Notably, these visual cues—marked by red and purple boxes—historically pinpoint areas of extreme value or opportunities. When red aligns with red and purple aligns with purple, these zones have consistently indicated significant market extremes.
Understanding and recognizing these patterns provides a strategic advantage. By identifying these visual triggers, traders can plan and execute informed trades with greater confidence whenever similar scenarios unfold in the future.
Kaspa is perhaps one of the most cyclical and predictable cryptocurrencies in the market. Given its consistent behavior, traders might wonder why they would trade anything else. As long as there are no signs indicating a change in Kaspa's cyclical nature, there is no reason to make significant alterations to our predictions. This makes Kaspa an attractive option for traders seeking reliable and repeatable trading opportunities.
🔹 Settings & customization:
As a visually-oriented trader, it is essential to customize the appearance of indicators to effectively navigate the Kaspa market. The Indicator offers extensive customization options, allowing users to modify the colors of various elements to suit their preferences. For example, users can adjust the colors of the deviation bubbles, deviation bands, sine wave, and power law to enhance visual clarity and focus on specific data points. This level of personalization not only enhances the overall user experience but also ensures that the visual representation aligns with unique trading strategies, making it easier to interpret complex market data.
Additionally, users can change the power law inputs and other parameters as shown in the image. For instance, the Power Law Intercept and Power Law Slope can be manually adjusted, allowing traders to update these values. This flexibility is crucial as the future power law for Kaspa may evolve/change.
🔶 Limitations
Like any technical analysis tool, the Empirical Kaspa Power Law Full Model indicator has limitations. It's based on historical data, which may not always accurately predict future market movements.
🔶 Credits
I want to thank Dr. Giovanni Santostasi · Professor of physics and Mathematics.
He was one of the first who applied the concept of the power law to Bitcoin's price movements, which has been instrumental in providing insights into the long-term growth and potential future value of Bitcoin. Giovanni also offers coding classes on his Discord, which I attended. He personally taught me how to code specific things in Pine Editor and Python, sparking my interest in developing my own indicator.
Additionally, I would like to extend my gratitude to the following individuals for their invaluable contributions in terms of ideas, theories, formulas, testing, and guidance:
Forgowork, PlanC, Miko Genno, Chancellor, SavingFace, Kaspapero, JJ Venema.
RSI Analysis with Statistical Summary Scientific Analysis of the Script "RSI Analysis with Statistical Summary"
Introduction
I observed that there are outliers in the price movement liquidity, and I wanted to understand the RSI value at those points and whether there are any notable patterns. I aimed to analyze this statistically, and this script is the result.
Explanation of Key Terms
1. Outliers in Price Movement Liquidity: An outlier is a data point that significantly deviates from other values. In this context, an outlier refers to an unusually high or low liquidity of price movement, which is the ratio of trading volume to the price difference between the open and close prices. These outliers can signal important market changes or unusual trading activities.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is a technical indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100 and helps identify overbought or oversold conditions of a trading instrument. An RSI value above 70 indicates an overbought condition, while a value below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
3. Mean: The mean is a measure of the average of a dataset. It is calculated by dividing the sum of all values by the number of values. In this script, the mean of the RSI values is calculated to provide a central tendency of the RSI distribution.
4. Standard Deviation (stdev): The standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or variation of a dataset. It shows how much the values deviate from the mean. A high standard deviation indicates that the values are widely spread, while a low standard deviation indicates that the values are close to the mean.
5. 68% Confidence Interval: A confidence interval indicates the range within which a certain percentage of values of a dataset lies. The 68% confidence interval corresponds to a range of plus/minus one standard deviation around the mean. It indicates that about 68% of the data points lie within this range, providing insight into the distribution of values.
Overview
This Pine Script™, written in Pine version 5, is designed to analyze the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of a stock or other trading instrument and create statistical summaries of the distribution of RSI values. The script identifies outliers in price movement liquidity and uses this information to calculate the frequency of RSI values. At the end, it displays a statistical summary in the form of a table.
Structure and Functionality of the Script
1. Input Parameters
- `rsi_len`: An integer input parameter that defines the length of the RSI (default: 14).
- `outlierThreshold`: An integer input parameter that defines the length of the outlier threshold (default: 10).
2. Calculating Price Movement Liquidity
- `priceMovementLiquidity`: The volume is divided by the absolute difference between the close and open prices to calculate the liquidity of the price movement.
3. Determining the Boundary for Liquidity and Identifying Outliers
- `liquidityBoundary`: The boundary is calculated using the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the price movement liquidity and its standard deviation.
- `outlier`: A boolean value that indicates whether the price movement liquidity exceeds the set boundary.
4. Calculating the RSI
- `rsi`: The RSI is calculated with a period length of 14, using various moving averages (e.g., SMA, EMA) depending on the settings.
5. Storing and Limiting RSI Values
- An array `rsiFrequency` stores the frequency of RSI values from 0 to 100.
- The function `f_limit_rsi` limits the RSI values between 0 and 100.
6. Updating RSI Frequency on Outlier Occurrence
- On an outlier occurrence, the limited and rounded RSI value is updated in the `rsiFrequency` array.
7. Statistical Summary
- Various variables (`mostFrequentRsi`, `leastFrequentRsi`, `maxCount`, `minCount`, `sum`, `sumSq`, `count`, `upper_interval`, `lower_interval`) are initialized to perform statistical analysis.
- At the last bar (`bar_index == last_bar_index`), a loop is run to determine the most and least frequent RSI values and their frequencies. Sum and sum of squares of RSI values are also updated for calculating mean and standard deviation.
- The mean (`mean`) and standard deviation (`stddev`) are calculated. Additionally, a 68% confidence interval is determined.
8. Creating a Table for Result Display
- A table `resultsTable` is created and filled with the results of the statistical analysis. The table includes the most and least frequent RSI values, the standard deviation, and the 68% confidence interval.
9. Graphical Representation
- The script draws horizontal lines and fills to indicate overbought and oversold regions of the RSI.
Interpretation of the Results
The script provides a detailed analysis of RSI values based on specific liquidity outliers. By calculating the most and least frequent RSI values, standard deviation, and confidence interval, it offers a comprehensive statistical summary that can help traders identify patterns and anomalies in the RSI. This can be particularly useful for identifying overbought or oversold conditions of a trading instrument and making informed trading decisions.
Critical Evaluation
1. Robustness of Outlier Identification: The method of identifying outliers is solely based on the liquidity of price movement. It would be interesting to examine whether other methods or additional criteria for outlier identification would lead to similar or improved results.
2. Flexibility of RSI Settings: The ability to select various moving averages and period lengths for the RSI enhances the adaptability of the script, allowing users to tailor it to their specific trading strategies.
3. Visualization of Results: While the tabular representation is useful, additional graphical visualizations, such as histograms of RSI distribution, could further facilitate the interpretation of the results.
In conclusion, this script provides a solid foundation for analyzing RSI values by considering liquidity outliers and enables detailed statistical evaluation that can be beneficial for various trading strategies.
