GOLD – 4H | Falling Wedge Structure Near Breakout

Gold has been compressing inside a converging falling wedge, a pattern that typically signals waning bearish pressure and an upcoming bullish break. The structure has been developing for several weeks, with each swing clearly showing a loss of momentum from sellers and a stronger defense from buyers at progressively higher lows.

The wedge is now approaching its apex, and price is pressing against the upper boundary. While this setup carries a bullish tilt, confirmation is still critical before acting.

Why this structure matters

• This is a Converging Falling Wedge (Bullish) pattern, defined by:
  
• Sellers losing momentum on each downswing
  
• Buyers defending higher lows, tightening the structure
  
• Compression building toward the apex, creating stored energy
  
• Breakouts typically hitting the upper rail first
• Confirmation occurring only on a close above the last swing high

In this case, the last swing high sits at 125,521, aligning perfectly with the wedge’s upper rail.

Only a sustained 4H close above 125,521 would confirm that the market has absorbed overhead supply and is ready to transition into a higher timeframe move.

RSI Check
RSI is trending higher but hasn’t yet signaled full breakout momentum. A push above the 60–65 zone would strengthen the bullish case and support continuation after the breakout.

Trade Plan
Trigger:
Entry only on a sustained 4H close above 125,521.
This keeps you aligned with pattern confirmation and avoids premature entries inside compression.

Upside path:
A breakout could initially retest the wedge boundary before starting the projected upward leg toward higher resistance zones.

Summary
Gold is displaying a well-defined falling wedge with clear signs of seller exhaustion and buyer strength. The structure leans bullish, but the move needs to be validated through a confirmed break above 125,521. Until then, the wedge remains a compression zone — not a breakout.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.