Bitcoin Daily Update (day 241)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored the price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.


Previous analysis / position: “From here I will be watching for a bounce on the 1h and 4h charts to retest $6,375 for resistance.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 | Short ETHUSD from $197.81
Patterns: Labeling a bear pennant on the 4h chart and expecting a bull trap bounce to $6,385
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,255 | R: $6,287
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to support inside the triangle, although current daily candle is fully below it.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.049% - getting paid to hold a position provides good confirmation that I am not betting with the herd.
Short term trend (4 day MA): bear
Medium term trend (4 week MA): bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): bear
Overall trend: bear
Volume: When volume?
FIB’s: Selloff found support at 0.786 ($6,210) | Breaking down 0.618 ($6,327) is very significant | 1.618 extention is at $5,630
Candlestick analysis: Daily shooting star closed today
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud from $6,290 - $6,340 indicates that the price could find resistance before retesting prior support at $6,385
TD’ Sequential: Weekly and daily r4. Getting more and more likely that monthly closes below $6,390 which would continue the setup with a r3.
Visible Range: Looking back to Feb 2018 (when this range started) and the POC is at $6,339 with the bottom of the highest volume node at $6,162.
Price action: 24h: +0.007% | 2w: -0.03% | 1m:
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA at $6,356 will be apart of the resistance cluster
Trendline: At $6,188 and $6,520
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Busted two down fractals on last move, new one waits at $6,055
RSI: 4h is bouncing while price is flat - hidden bear div | 1h has retested 50 and basically double topped
Stochastic: 1h sell | 4h looks like it is rejecting bullish crossover | Daily is getting ready to enter oversold territory - remember that the biggest moves often happen when the daily stochastic gets stuck at the top or bottom.

Summary: I have drawn a few arrows to outline what I think is the most likely price action from here. Bounce to $6,385 | selloff to $6,000 | bounce to $6,150 and then breakdown $6,000. If we do bounce from here then it should provide a great opportunity to enter / add to a short.

If the 4h bear pennant breaks down then I would not be viewing it as a good opportunity to open a short or add to one. That is due to the bull trendline waiting at $6,185 - which also represents my phase 2 hyperwave line. That area has provided major support every time it has been tested.

If you are not in a position and are wanting to enter a short then my plan would be: A) prepare to sell if we bounce to ~$6,300 B) If we don’t bounce then wait for the green trendline to break down and either sell the breakout, sell the throwback or do both.